Economic monitoring indicators last month flashed a “green” light for the fourth consecutive month, indicating the nation’s economy is on track for a gradual improvement, the National Development Council (NDC) said yesterday.
Council Deputy Minister Chen Chien-liang (陳建良) said in a press conference yesterday that he is cautiously optimistic that the indicators will flash “green” again this month.
The council uses a five-color spectrum to categorize the nation’s economic health, with “blue” signaling recession, “green” steady growth and “red” overheating, while “yellow-blue” indicates a transition between recession and growth, and “yellow-red” represents a transition between growth and overheating.
However, the score of the monitoring indicators — which takes into account both leading and coincident indicators — dropped five points to 24 points last month from 29 points a month earlier because of lower growth of “customs-cleared exports,” “TAIEX average closing price,” “imports of machinery and electrical equipment” and “sales of trade and food services” last month compared with the previous month, the council’s report said.
Chen said the lower growth of the TAIEX average closing price this month was because of a higher base level in May last year compared with April last year, while lower imports last month were because major semiconductor companies in Taiwan had already purchased a large amount of machinery and equipment, in the previous two months.
“Despite the decline last month, we can still see an upward trend of the score if we focus more on long- term development,” Chen said.
The index of leading economic indicators, which is used to gauge the nation’s short-term economic outlook, posted its third consecutive decline by 0.18 points to 100.44 points last month from 100.62 points a month ago, the council said.
The index of coincident indicators, which reflects monthly economic conditions, reported its 13th increase last month to 100.87 points, up from 100.78 points the previous month, it said.
Gordon Sun (孫明德), director of the macroeconomic forecasting center at the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER, 台灣經濟研究院), said the steep changes of the score are common during a recovery from an economic slowdown.
Sun said the country’s economy will rise in the second half of this year based on rising exports, as many electronics companies have expressed a more positive outlook for the second half.
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