Chinese property trusts face record repayments next year as the real-estate market cools, fueling speculation among bond funds that more developers will collapse.
The trusts, which channel money from wealthy individuals to smaller builders — who have trouble obtaining financing elsewhere — must repay 203.5 billion yuan (US$32.7 billion) next year, according to Use Trust, a Chinese research firm. That is almost double the 109 billion yuan due this year. New issuance of the products slumped to 40.7 billion yuan this quarter, the least in more than two years, Use Trust data show.
“Trust loan defaults will rise substantially,” said Fiona Cheung, head of Asia credit at Manulife Asset Management’s (宏利投信) fixed-income team, which oversees US$44 billion globally. “It won’t be surprising if there are more collapses of China’s property companies. Those companies that suffer from weak sales, that bought land too aggressively last year funded by debt and that have poor access to capital markets will potentially experience cash-flow pressure.”
JPMorgan Chase & Co says the real-estate industry poses the biggest near-term risk to growth in the world’s second-largest economy after new home prices dropped in the most cities in two years last month. China’s banking regulator said on June 6 that it would monitor developer finances, a sign of concern that defaults may spread after the March collapse of Zhejiang Xingrun Real Estate Co (浙江興潤置業投資有限公司), a property developer south of Shanghai.
Prices fell last month from April in 35 of the 70 cities tracked by the government — the most since May 2012, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday. In Shanghai, prices slid 0.3 percent from April, the first fall in two years.
“It’s unavoidable that property trusts will have defaults this and next year,” said Yao Wei (姚偉), Hong Kong-based China economist at Societe Generale SA. “The industry has come to a turning point. The imbalance between supply and demand is so big that adjustments are needed.”
China is cracking down on the off-balance-sheet lending known as shadow-banking, including trust companies and wealth management products issued by banks.
The shadow-banking industry was worth 38.8 trillion yuan as of the end of last year, a Barclays PLC report estimated last month.
Concern that defaults could spread rose in January after a 3 billion yuan trust product called Credit Equals Gold No. 1, which had raised money for a failed coalminer, had to be bailed out days before maturing.
The yuan has fallen 2.8 percent against the US dollar this year, making it the worst-performing Asian currency. The yield on the benchmark 10-year government bond has dropped 52 basis points to 4.04 percent in the same period as investors seek safe havens.
Defaults on shadow-bank loans including trust loans by property companies will increase, with smaller builders particularly vulnerable, according to Frank Chen, head of China research at CBRE Group Inc, a commercial real-estate services firm based in Los Angeles.
“The key risk lies with small and medium-sized local developers which have limited access to bank lending and capital markets,” Chen said in Shanghai. “The slowdown in the residential market is more acute in lower-tier cities.”
Even as larger Chinese property companies are able to tap the international bond market to raise funds, offerings there have also declined. While offshore note issuance from developers in China and Hong Kong has more than doubled this quarter compared with the same period last year to US$6.1 billion, that is down 26 percent from the first three months of the year, Bloomberg-compiled data show.
“The decline in issuance is due in part to the weaker sentiment among investors,” said Franco Leung, an analyst in Hong Kong at Moody’s Investors Service. “Investors are seeing higher risk in the property sector than last year.”
Moody’s revised its credit outlook for Chinese developers to negative from stable on May 21. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Property Index, which tracks 24 developers listed in the city, has slumped 6.3 percent this year, exceeding the 4.2 percent decline for the Shanghai Composite Index.
Chen said while the central government may not officially lift restrictions on home purchases meant to prevent overheating of the market, local governments have been trying to provide support in a subtle way, Chen said.
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