GDP growth may rise by 3.6 percent next year, from an estimated 2.18 percent increase this year, on the back of a recovery in private consumption in the US, Europe and China, the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) said yesterday.
ANZ made the growth forecast three days before the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) is due to release its latest projections.
“We expect Taiwan’s GDP to benefit from the global economic recovery next year, especially in the US,” providing the world’s largest economy successfully resolves its fiscal debt problems, Hong Kong-based ANZ senior economist Raymond Yeung (楊宇霆) said in Taipei.
The EU is set to emerge from recession next year, but its job market will remain weak for several years, Yeung said.
China, the largest export destination for Taiwanese goods, will continue its economic reforms to achieve more balanced growth, he said.
The backdrop bodes well for Taiwan’s export-focused economy, which may expand at the same pace as global GDP growth, estimated at 3.6 percent for next year, Yeung said.
ANZ expects the US Federal Reserve to start winding down quantitative easing in March at the earliest by cutting its monthly asset purchases by US$10 billion, he said, adding that the move could raise bond yields and inflationary pressure on the greenback against other currencies, he said.
Taiwan’s central bank is likely to maintain its loose monetary policy next month and push back the normalization of interest rates until June next year to support the economy given its disappointing showing so far this year, he said.