Credit Suisse yesterday said Taiwan’s current political turmoil would shock the local stock market, but the impact would be limited.
“Political uncertainties may cause impacts to TAIEX in the short term, but we forecast the shocks will not last too long,” Credit Suisse analysts Chung Hsu (許忠維) told reporters on the sidelines of the brokerage’s 14th Asian Technology Conference in Taipei.
Hsu’s comment followed the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) revoking the membership of Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) yesterday and thereby his legislator-at-large status and the speakership.
The most important factors driving the performance of the stock market in any country are capital and the trends in each different industry, said Albert Park, managing director and head of Asia Pacific cash equities sales at Credit Suisse.
Park said political disputes can be a factor of each country’s stock market, but only in the short term and thus should not be seen as a major factor when predicting Taiwan’s long-term stock market movement.
Turning to consumer electronic products, Credit Suisse analysts told reporters that they forecast demand for high-end smartphones would remain lukewarm through 2015.
Credit Suisse forecast shipment of smartphone products that are priced between US$200 and US$400 would remain strong over the next two years.
The Switzerland-based brokerage said the rising penetration of sub-US$200 smartphone products in emerging markets would continue to strongly drive the segment, adding that overall smartphone sales and shipments would likely grow more than 20 percent this year and 14 percent next year.
Given that the high-end smartphone market is reaching the saturation point, mid-sized tablet models equipped with 7-inch to 13-inch displays are expected to become the next sales driver for PC brands, the brokerage forecast.
It predicted that shipment of mid-sized tablets equipped with 7-inch to 13-inch displays would achieve a compound annual growth rate of 30 percent in the period from 2011 and 2015.
“Current consumer preference for smaller 7 to 8-inch tablets still leaves the door open for innovative products to come in and capture the market for more than 10-inch screen size devices,” Credit Suisse analyst Manish Nigam said.
“If the Windows-Intel camp fails to appeal to the consumer over the next product cycle starting next quarter, we believe the Android and the Apple ecosystems would continue to narrow the gap both in terms of hardware and availability of productivity and content-driven applications on their respective operating systems,” he added.
Hsu said he expected the TAIEX to see a moderate upside and cross the 8,500 benchmark by the end of the year, as a better US economic recovery will be partly offset by a weaker consumer tech cycle and slower economic growth in China.