Cathay Financial Holding Co (國泰金控) yesterday said it would maintain this year’s GDP growth forecast for Taiwan at 2.27 percent as the economy undergoes slow recovery.
The financial company’s research team said exports will contribute to the GDP growth this year by 0.58 percent, higher than the 0.2 percent the firm forecast previously.
However, private investment will only contribute 0.87 percent to this year’s growth, lower than the 1.26 percent Cathay Financial estimated on June 5.
“The nation’s exports are expected to post a mild sequential increase in the second half of this year as the recovery in the US and Europe will be better than expected,” Hsu Chih-chiang (徐之強), an economics professor at National Central University and leader of Cathay Financial’s research team, told a press conference in Taipei yesterday.
Hsu said his team had downgraded the forecast for private investment growth was because the low imports of capital equipment seen in the first seven months of the year.
The team set its forecast for economic growth this year at between 2.03 percent and 2.89 percent, according to a report released by Cathay Financial.
That forecast is lower than the 2.31 percent growth forecast by the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) last month.
Cathay Financial said private consumption this year would grow 1.43 percent, lower than 1.59 percent estimated by the DGBAS because of the declining sales of wholesalers, retailers and restaurants from a year ago.