Sun, Sep 23, 2012 - Page 13 News List

WTO cuts forecast for 2012 outlook, cites weak growth


The WTO on Friday slashed its 2012 global trade outlook, citing the eurozone debt crisis and weak growth in the US and China as key factors behind the downgrade.

Global trade is now expected to grow 2.5 percent this year, compared with a previous forecast of 3.7 percent, the WTO said in a statement released in Singapore.

It also cut its global trade growth outlook for next year to 4.5 percent from 5.6 percent.

“The global economy has encountered increasingly strong headwinds since the last WTO Secretariat forecast was issued,” the WTO said. “Output and employment data in the US have continued to disappoint, while purchasing managers’ indices and industrial production figures in China point to slower growth in the world’s largest exporter. More importantly, the European sovereign debt crisis has not abated, making fiscal adjustment in the peripheral euro area economies more painful and stoking volatility.”

In April, the WTO had warned that world trade growth, which slowed to 5 percent last year after a big rebound of 14 percent in 2010, would weaken again this year.

WTO Director-General Pascal Lamy called for more to be done to boost global growth, on top of recent measures to to buy up government bonds announced by the central banks of the US, Europe and Japan.

“In an increasingly interdependent world, economic shocks in one region can quickly spread to others,” he said in the statement. “Recently announced measures to reinforce the euro and boost growth in the US are therefore extremely welcome, but more needs to be done. We need a renewed commitment to revitalize the multilateral trading system which can restore economic certainty at a time when it is badly needed.”

The WTO’s revised projections for this year came as data showed global trade volume grew just 0.3 percent in the second quarter, significantly slower than the 1.2 percent seen in the previous three months.

Lamy, speaking at a press conference in Singapore, said the WTO’s revised trade outlook should not come as a surprise given the strains facing the global economy.

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