The nation’s economy can be expected to grow by 3.6 percent this year amid a slowly improving, but still “very fragile” global economy, the IMF said in a report released yesterday.
The world economy is expected to expand by 3.5 percent this year and 4.1 percent next year, while Taiwan’s economy is expected to grow 3.6 percent this year and 4.7 percent next year, according to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report.
The IMF’s forecast for Taiwan this year is less optimistic than the 3.85 percent growth forecast by the government’s Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics.
The two major concerns in this year’s global economic outlook are the ongoing European debt crisis and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could trigger a sharp increase in oil prices, the report said.
However, Asian countries are expected to maintain mid-level growth and have a “soft landing” amid the global economic crisis, as the report forecasts 6 percent growth in Asia this year and 6.5 percent next year.
Meanwhile, South Korea, Taiwan’s main trading competitor, is expected to grow 3.5 percent this year and 4 percent next year, the report said.
Hong Kong is forecast to expand by 2.6 percent this year and 4.2 percent next year, while Singapore is expected to see 2.7 percent growth this year and 3.9 percent growth next year, the report said.
Fluctuations in international oil prices would be a risk factor for global economic growth, the IMF said.