China’s manufacturing activity rose to the highest level in a year, official data showed yesterday, but analysts tempered their enthusiasm, saying the world’s second-largest economy was still slowing.
The official purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 53.1 last month from 51 in February, helped by an increase in new orders, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in a statement.
It marked the fourth consecutive month of expansion for manufacturing activity. A reading above 50 indicates industry is expanding, while a reading below 50 suggests it is contracting.
The latest figure approached a level not seen since March last year, when PMI reached 53.4, previous data showed. The latest number also beat analysts’ median forecast of 50.5, according to Dow Jones Newswires.
“PMI tends to pick up in March every year ... so it is important not to view this as a sign of out-and-out strength,” Beijing-based IHS Global Insight economist Alistair Thornton said in a research note.
“At the very least, things are not getting worse,” he added.
China’s economy is widely expected to slow this year as woes in key export markets, such as Europe and the US, hit its overseas sales.
The government last month set a target for 7.5 percent economic growth this year. China’s economy grew 9.2 percent last year and 10.4 percent in 2010.
Zhang Liqun (張立群), a researcher at government think-tank the Development Research Center, warned overall economic growth was still slowing.
“Future economic growth will still experience a slowdown,” he was quoted as saying in the official PMI statement issued by the industry group.
Analysts said manufacturing activity typically picks up in March with the arrival of spring and following an annual meeting of lawmakers during the month, which sets economic policy for the coming year.
“The government’s PMI may have been affected by seasonal factors, so the reality may not be as good,” Nomura Securities chief China economist Zhang Zhiwei (張智威) said.
A separate reading of PMI also released yesterday by British banking giant HSBC PLC showed a less optimistic picture than the official figure.
HSBC’s PMI fell to 48.3 last month from 49.6 in February, marking the fifth month manufacturing activity has remained in contraction, the bank said in a statement.
Analysts say the HSBC survey puts more emphasis on smaller companies, which are suffering more in the economic downturn than state-owned giants.
The government will still need to loosen credit this year to offset the economic slowdown, though any move could be delayed given the better-than-expected official PMI figure, ANZ Research said.
The central bank in February cut the amount of cash banks must hold in reserve for the second time in three months as policymakers moved to increase lending and boost domestic consumption amid the economic slowdown.
Beijing has pledged to “fine-tune” policy to prevent a hard landing for the economy, which could trigger widespread job losses and spark social unrest.