China will become the world’s largest smartphone market this year, driven by sales of low-priced models, while India and Brazil will play more meaningful roles by 2016, according to a US-based research firm.
After surpassing smartphone shipments in the US for two consecutive quarters in the second half of last year, China will carry that momentum into this year and rank as the top smartphone market for the whole of this year, International Data Corp (IDC) predicted in a recent report.
China is forecast to order 20.7 percent of worldwide smartphone shipments this year, slightly higher than the 20.6 percent for the US, according to the report.
Meanwhile, India will account for only a 2.9 percent share of the worldwide smartphone market and rank as the seventh-largest country-level smartphone market this year, with Brazil taking 2.3 percent and ranking 10th, according to the report.
IDC also said that Android smartphones priced below US$200 were a hot segment last year, and these low-cost models are expected to remain a key driver for smartphone growth, with prices becoming even more affordable on falling chipset prices and increased competition.
“Emerging domestic vendors will be another important engine of smartphone growth as giants Huawei (華為), ZTE (中興) and Lenovo (聯想) continue to ramp up with big carrier orders due to their willingness to produce customized handsets,” said IDC senior market analyst Wong Teck-zhung .
“International players such as Samsung and Nokia are also expected to drive volume at the low end with cheaper smartphones,” Wong added.
In addition to local handset brands in China, Taiwan’s HTC Corp (宏達電) has tapped into the booming market over the past two years.
Because of the uniqueness of the retail business model in China, HTC has said its products were distributed at 2,000 locations at the end of last year, up from 650 locations in the second quarter. HTC also plans to sell its new “One” series of streamlined phones in China this year through the country’s three major telecoms operators, said Herbert Ho, an analyst at the Taipei-based Topology Research Institute (TRI, 拓璞產業研究所).
Ho said the three “One” smartphone models unveiled on Feb. 27 at the Barcelona Mobile World Congress, including the 4G LTE (long-term evolution)-enabled One XL, will start from 1,500 yuan (US$237) after incentives.
Meanwhile, mature markets such as Japan, the UK and the US will experience continued growth in smartphone adoption, but volumes will not keep up with emerging markets such as India and Brazil, IDC said.
Smartphone growth in India last year was largely driven by top-tier brands like Samsung and HTC, but international vendors will look to continue investing in local manufacturing over the next few years as the Indian market becomes a top priority, the research firm said.
By the end of 2016, IDC said, China and the US should remain the two largest markets with 20.2 percent and 15.3 percent shares respectively, followed by 9.3 percent for India, 4.7 percent for Brazil and 3.7 percent for the UK.
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