Irish voters will support Europe’s treaty to tighten budget rules, opinion polls showed on Saturday.
Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny surprised parliament on Tuesday last week by calling a referendum on the fiscal treaty, Ireland’s fifth vote on Europe in 11 years.
The Sunday Business Post/Red C opinion poll, the first since the referendum was announced, showed 44 percent of the 1,000 people questioned would vote in favor of the treaty, a four point rise since a poll in January, with 29 percent opposed. Slightly more than a quarter were undecided.
The government needs to secure a majority vote to ratify the treaty. The referendum is expected in May or June.
Irish citizens, who are entitled to vote on any major transfers of powers to Brussels, are seen as one of the biggest obstacles to overhauling the bloc. They have twice rejected changes to EU treaties before voting through amended versions.
A poll in January suggested that the treaty would just pass with 40 percent of those questioned saying they would vote “yes” if a referendum was held and 36 percent opposed. A quarter were undecided.
A second poll on Saturday by the Sunday Independent and Millward Brown Lansdowne, reported on RTE, showed that 37 percent would vote “yes” and 26 percent “no.” Slightly more than a fifth said “it depends” and 15 percent were undecided.
EU officials agreed the new treaty in December, aiming to push ahead with deeper economic integration and tackle the eurozone debt crisis.
Kenny said support for the referendum was crucial for Ireland’s place in the EU and the single currency.
Theresa Reidy, a lecturer in politics at University College Cork, said the while the government had started with an advantage, that could change over the coming months.
“Forty-four percent in favor and 29 percent against means the government have a slight lead, but that lead is narrow and it could change quite dramatically in the course of the campaign. You can get quite significant swings of opinion over just three or four weeks. It’s very clear that it is all to play for,” she said.
Party figures from the Red C poll showed Fine Gael support unchanged at 30 percent, Sinn Fein up one point to 18 percent, Fianna Fail down one point to 17 percent, Labour rose two points to 16 percent and Independents were down two points to 19 percent.
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