The global economic climate continued to fall this quarter, the third straight quarter of decline, which has created a “difficult situation,” the Council for Economic Planning and Development said yesterday, citing the latest World Economic Survey by the Munich-based Ifo research institute.
The German institute’s quarterly survey, which polled 1,119 experts from 119 economies last month, showed its world economic climate index — which included the respondents’ evaluation on current economic conditions and sentiments during the next six months — fell sharply to 78.7 points in the fourth quarter, from 97.7 recorded in the previous quarter.
This marked the lowest level since the second quarter of 2009, the Ifo survey showed.
“The hardship of the eurozone’s debt problem, which made respondents’ pessimistic about the economic sentiment for the near term, was the main factor that lead the indicator’s decline,” Council for Economic Planning and Development Minister Christina Liu (劉憶如) told a media briefing.
The sub-index of sentiments for the next six months dropped to 71.9 points this quarter, from 99.1 in the previous quarter, while the current economic conditions sub-index fell to 86, down from 99.1 recorded in the third quarter, the report said.
“The trend seems quite different from the global financial crisis in 2008,” Liu said, adding that the sub-index for current economic conditions was dragging down the benchmark index.
Liu said, it will be “very critical” to watch the first quarter’s sub-index of near-term sentiment to see if it rebounds as it did for the first quarter in 2009.
As for Taiwan, most respondents gave “bearish” assessments of the nation’s economic prospects, while forecasting the overall economy, capital expenditures and private consumption to worsen in the next half-year, the report said.
Although the nation’s trade would inevitably be dragged down amid the current global downturn, Liu said increasing overseas investment might provide an opportunity for exporters.
Exports might fall on buyers’ conservative sentiment, but if domestic companies invest directly in other countries, they could enter additional markets to sell their products, Liu said.
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