The aggregate revenues of Taiwanese semiconductor companies are expected to drop by 5.8 percent this year from last year primarily because of stagnating demand for notebook computers amid a precarious global economy, according to local market researcher Industry and Technology Intelligence Services’ (ITIS, 智網) latest projections yesterday.
This year, the overall revenues of local semiconductor companies, including the world’s top contract chipmaker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), would slip to NT$1.67 trillion (US$57.75 billion), compared with NT$1.77 trillion last year, the researcher predicted.
“Demand for chips used in PC and notebook computers will not be as strong as usual in the second half, offsetting fair demand for smartphone chips,” ITIS said in the report.
The latest forecast reversed ITIS’ February estimate of an 8.7 percent annual growth in revenues to NT$1.92 trillion.
On July 28, TSMC said its target of 20 percent annual growth in revenues in US dollar terms this year would not be attainable because customers were expected to reduce orders due to high inventory. TSMC chairman Morris Chang (張忠謀) expected the inventory correction would take only one quarter.
This year, chip manufacturers are expected to bear the brunt of the revenue drop, with revenues down 9.3 percent to NT$801.9 billion, ITIS forecast.
Meanwhile, chip testers and packagers are expected to outperform the industry by reporting 3.7 percent and 4.5 percent growth year-on-year respectively, ITIS said.
Third-quarter revenues are expected to decrease 1.1 percent quarter-on-quarter to NT$413.8 billion, snapping two consecutive quarters of growth last quarter at NT$413.8 billion, according to ITIS.
“The eurozone and US debt problems will reduce consumers’ end-demand during China’s October shopping season and the Christmas holiday shopping season, meaning the third quarter will not represent a peak season as before,” ITIS said in the report.
ITIS warned that Taiwanese chip designers would also see their growth slow. The composite annual growth rate would slow to 7 percent over the next five years, from 9.8 percent over the past five years, the researcher predicted.
Taiwanese chip designers led by handset chip designer MediaTek Inc (聯發科) could lose their market position to Chinese peers by 2015, with Chinese firms’ overall revenues expected to grow by more than 20 percent annually over the next five years to US$10.7 billion in 2015.
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