China posted a smaller-than-expected trade surplus yesterday because of soaring imports and a pullback in global demand, sending mixed signals about how the economy fared when some of its best export customers faltered.
Exports rose 19.4 percent last month from a year earlier, slowing from the 29.9 percent pace in April, while import growth accelerated to 28.4 percent from 21.8 percent in April, the customs agency said.
The export growth was shy of economists’ expectations for a 21 percent rise, while the imports came in faster than the consensus call of 22.5 percent.
China’s trade surplus rose from US$11.4 billion in April to US$13.1 billion, but that was far below the forecast for US$18.6 billion in a Reuters poll.
“The general message is neither weak nor strong,” said Ken Peng -(彭墾), an economist with Citigroup.
Indeed, the data offered a little something for everyone, which may explain why financial markets showed no significant reaction.
Those who think the world economy will revive in the coming months could point to China’s stronger-than-expected imports as evidence that domestic demand remains healthy in a region that is vital to global growth.
Those who worry about a -protracted slowdown could find supporting evidence in the weaker-than-expected export figures.
China’s exports to the US rose by a modest 7.2 percent from a year ago, well off the 25 percent growth seen in April. For the EU, exports rose 13.2 percent, less than half the rate recorded in April.
Economists had widely expected export growth to slow after a series of manufacturing surveys showed weaker orders from most of China’s big trading partners, but the pace slowed a tad more than economists had predicted.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports last month rose 16.6 percent from a year earlier, but fell 4.4 percent from the previous month. Imports gained 23.1 percent year-on-year, but were down 4.5 percent month-on-month.
Chen Yong (陳勇), an analyst at Huatai United Securities (華泰聯合證券) in Shanghai, said the pullback last month demonstrated “there are still uncertainties hanging over the world recovery.”
“The trade surplus in May is still at a relatively high level, which means there remains huge pressure for yuan appreciation,” Chen said.
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