The global economic climate continues to brighten, with its benchmark index rising for the fifth consecutive quarter, while Taiwan’s economy is expected to remain bullish in the near future, the latest Ifo World Economic Survey showed yesterday.
The German-based quarterly survey, which polled 1,154 experts from 110 economies last month, said that the economic climate indicator rose to 104.1 points in the second quarter of this year, up from 99.5 recorded in the previous quarter.
That has exceeded its long-term average of 96.9 for two quarters in a row, indicating that the global economy has steadily recovered from the global financial crisis and will continue to grow in the near term, the survey said.
Economists have assessed the current economic situation as “less unfavorable than at the beginning of the year” and remain confident for the next half year as “the world economy has found its footing,” according to the survey.
The Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) said the survey results showed that Taiwan’s current economic performance, capital expenditure and domestic consumption are regarded as satisfactory by the economists polled.
“For the next six months, Taiwan’s exports and equities are expected to turn bullish, and consumer prices and short-term and long-term interest rates are likely to increase,” Wu Ming-hui (吳明蕙), a council analyst, told a media briefing yesterday.
Many economic institutes have recently revised upward their GDP growth forecasts for Taiwan this year.
The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics will release its latest economic growth forecast for Taiwan today, and the agency is likely to revise upward the first-quarter GDP from the previous estimate of 9.24 percent.
Although the economic climate improved strongly overall in Asia, the economic situation is regarded as unsatisfactory outside Asia, the Ifo survey said.
“In Western Europe, the indicator remained largely unchanged and has not reached its long-term average,” it said.
In terms of foreign exchange, the survey said the major currencies, including the euro, the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the pound, are seen as “appropriately valued on a worldwide average.”
It noted the turbulence in the financial markets at the beginning of this month was not included in the survey responses.
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