Polaris Research Institute (寶華綜合經濟研究院) yesterday raised its economic growth and inflation forecasts for Taiwan for this year, but at the same time warned that weak consumption in the US and Europe, sovereign debt worries in some countries and potential macroeconomic policy changes in China could cap the nation’s growth momentum.
The Taipei-based think tank raised its GDP growth forecast this year to 4.65 percent, from the 4.57 percent it made in December.
This compares with the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics’ (DGBAS) forecast of 4.72 percent made last month and Taiwan Institute of Economic Research’s (台灣經濟研究院) 4.81 percent, made in January.
“Taiwanese exports have performed better than expected and the economy has shown solid signs of recovery,” Polaris president Liang Kuo-yuan (梁國源) told a press briefing yesterday.
“A general view is that the US growth momentum would slow in the second half,” Liang said.
This, in addition to governments possibly withdrawing their stimulus plans, could cast a cloud over Taiwan’s economic growth prospects, he said.
Polaris forecast that the economy would expand 8.85 percent this quarter, followed by 6.83 percent growth in the second quarter, 3.79 percent in the third quarter and 0.18 percent in the final quarter.
As the nation’s exports in the first two months of the year have recovered to pre-crisis levels, the institute said external trade would grow 15.25 percent this year, with quarterly increases of 36.57 percent, 21.98 percent, 7.53 percent and 2.18 percent in sequential order.
Polaris also raised its private consumption and private investment growth forecasts to 1.82 percent and 13.96 percent respectively, while leaving its projection for government spending unchanged at 1.7 percent.
Consumer prices are expected to rise 1.23 percent this year, up from the previous forecast of 1.1 percent, because of a rebound in global commodity prices and the low-base effect last year, Polaris said in a report.
The DGBAS last month also raised its projection of consumer prices to an increase of 1.27 percent this year, up from its previous forecast of 0.87 percent made in November, citing rising global crude oil prices.
As for the value of the New Taiwan dollar, Polaris said the local currency would face some pressure to appreciate against the US dollar, but added that the rise of the NT dollar would be limited as the central bank would not like to see the local currency rise too much, too soon.
Polaris predicted that the NT dollar’s exchange would trade at an average of NT$31.60 versus the greenback this year, compared with its previous estimate of NT$31.80 made in December.
In Taipei trading yesterday, the NT dollar closed 0.25 percent lower at NT$31.825.
ADDITIONAL REPORTING BY JASON TAN
Taiwan Transport and Storage Corp (TTS, 台灣通運倉儲) yesterday unveiled its first electric tractor unit — manufactured by Volvo Trucks — in a ceremony in Taipei, and said the unit would soon be used to transport cement produced by Taiwan Cement Corp (TCC, 台灣水泥). Both TTS and TCC belong to TCC International Holdings Ltd (台泥國際集團). With the electric tractor unit, the Taipei-based cement firm would become the first in Taiwan to use electric vehicles to transport construction materials. TTS chairman Koo Kung-yi (辜公怡), Volvo Trucks vice president of sales and marketing Johan Selven, TCC president Roman Cheng (程耀輝) and Taikoo Motors Group
Among the rows of vibrators, rubber torsos and leather harnesses at a Chinese sex toys exhibition in Shanghai this weekend, the beginnings of an artificial intelligence (AI)-driven shift in the industry quietly pulsed. China manufactures about 70 percent of the world’s sex toys, most of it the “hardware” on display at the fair — whether that be technicolor tentacled dildos or hyper-realistic personalized silicone dolls. Yet smart toys have been rising in popularity for some time. Many major European and US brands already offer tech-enhanced products that can enable long-distance love, monitor well-being and even bring people one step closer to
RECORD-BREAKING: TSMC’s net profit last quarter beat market expectations by expanding 8.9% and it was the best first-quarter profit in the chipmaker’s history Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), which counts Nvidia Corp as a key customer, yesterday said that artificial intelligence (AI) server chip revenue is set to more than double this year from last year amid rising demand. The chipmaker expects the growth momentum to continue in the next five years with an annual compound growth rate of 50 percent, TSMC chief executive officer C.C. Wei (魏哲家) told investors yesterday. By 2028, AI chips’ contribution to revenue would climb to about 20 percent from a percentage in the low teens, Wei said. “Almost all the AI innovators are working with TSMC to address the
Malaysia’s leader yesterday announced plans to build a massive semiconductor design park, aiming to boost the Southeast Asian nation’s role in the global chip industry. A prominent player in the semiconductor industry for decades, Malaysia accounts for an estimated 13 percent of global back-end manufacturing, according to German tech giant Bosch. Now it wants to go beyond production and emerge as a chip design powerhouse too, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said. “I am pleased to announce the largest IC (integrated circuit) Design Park in Southeast Asia, that will house world-class anchor tenants and collaborate with global companies such as Arm [Holdings PLC],”