Taiwan’s economic conditions have improved considerably compared with the fourth quarter of last year, with the economic climate indicator rising above its long-term average for the first time in two years, the latest Ifo World Economic Survey said.
The German-based quarterly survey on business cycle developments, which polled 1,054 experts from 94 countries, showed that Taiwan’s overall economic performance, capital expenditure, private consumption, exports and share prices were expected to turn bullish in the next half year.
“Based on the results, we found that the nation’s economic conditions have returned to satisfactory levels for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2008,” Wu Ming-huei (吳明蕙), an analyst with the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD), said by telephone.
Citing the Ifo survey, the council said in a statement that in the next six months, the nation’s consumer prices, the New Taiwan dollar, as well as short and long-term interest rates, were likely to rise.
In terms of region, Asia has the highest economic confidence, with almost all nations in the region expecting stronger economic performance over last year, the survey said.
“However, the appraisals of the economic situation outside Asia remain predominantly unsatisfactory. With regard to the six-month outlook, the Asia experts remain optimistic, though not quite so much as in the previous quarter,” the survey said.
Wu said that based on statistics from the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS), Taiwan’s economy would expand on increasing overseas demand and domestic investment this year.
On Monday, the DGBAS raised its forecast for this year’s GDP growth to 4.72 percent from its November estimate of 4.39 percent.
The council will announce its overall monitoring indicators for the nation’s economic climate tomorrow. The economic index flashed “yellow-red” — meaning it was “slightly overheated” — for a second consecutive month in December.
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