Exports showed further improvement last month, with the decline easing to 12.7 percent year-on-year, and are expected to regain positive growth later this year, the Ministry of Finance said yesterday.
Shipments clearing customs reached an 11-month high of US$19.07 billion last month as demand from major trade partners picked up steam, said Lin Lee-jen (林麗貞), head of the ministry’s statistics department.
“The decline is likely to narrow to a single digit in October, reverse to two-digit growth in November and post a sharp increase in December,” Lin told a media briefing.
Imports fell 21.1 percent year-on-year to US$16.52 billion last month, leaving a trade surplus of US$2.55 billion for the month, the ministry’s latest data showed.
The import of capital goods rose to a 12-month high of US$2.36 billion as the private sector showed willingness to invest and expand, Lin said.
Lin attributed her optimism to rising external demand, saying the fourth quarter had proved a hot season for manufacturers in recent years.
REGIONAL FIGURES
“Ending 12 months of decline, exports to China grew 0.3 percent [year-on-year] last month,” Lin said.
“Shipments to Japan, the US and Europe increased slightly, compared with a month earlier,” she said.
Exports to Hong Kong and China amounted to US$8.22 billion, while shipments to the US and Europe totaled US$1.97 billion and US$2.05 billion respectively, ministry data showed.
Exports to ASEAN countries fell 6.2 percent to US$2.84 billion.
Analysts, meanwhile, said the improvement in exports had more to do with the low base last year.
Tony Phoo (符銘財), chief economist of Standard Chartered Bank, said export value increased slightly from August, indicating external demand remained weak.
Phoo said the amount was very likely to rise by double digits next month as the figure a year earlier plunged to US$16.77 billion.
“Restocking has more to do with the pickup in exports,” Phoo said by telephone.
“A concrete recovery remains unlikely as tough job markets at home and abroad will continue to weaken demand,” he said.
SLOWING GROWTH
Tine Olsen, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com, predicted Taiwan’s outbound shipments would grow at a slower pace in coming months as foreign demand has probably been met.
Olsen said in an e-mailed statement that overseas consumers have caught up on the spending they gave up during the global recession, while firms have likewise caught up on investment and restocked their inventories.
“If consumers and firms in Taiwan’s export markets are more frugal than prior to the global recession, this will reduce the long-term level of Taiwan’s exports,” she wrote.
Johnny Chen (陳擎宏), deputy manager of the economics and industry research department at First Commercial Bank (第一銀行), agreed the annual high season is approaching its climax.
Demand for Christmas sales usually peaks in October or even earlier and will slow modestly later, Chen said.
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