Print

Mail

wiki links

ANALYSIS: Shifts in local DRAM landscape begin

“No doubt, TMC is starting to play a greater role in reinventing Taiwan’s DRAM sector.” — Kenneth Lee, analyst, Fubon Securities Investment Services Co

The government’s efforts to revitalize Taiwan’s ailing but crucial computer memory chip sector made significant progress after ­government-backed Taiwan Memory Co (TMC, 台灣創新記憶體公司) started operations, putting pressure on local rivals to fend off growing competition.

The launch of TMC, eight months after the government unveiled its plan to revamp the local dynamic random access memory (DRAM) sector, has laid to rest speculation that the government’s consolidation plan would be dropped.

The speculation came because most local DRAM companies have briefly escaped the worst of the down cycle, benefiting from nascent recovery. Now that memory chipmakers have more leeway to fight their way out of the woods, they could become unwilling to relinquish control over their companies.

“No doubt, TMC is starting to play a greater role in reinventing Taiwan’s DRAM sector by integrating idle resources,” said Kenneth Lee (李克揚), a semiconductor analyst with Fubon Securities Investment Services Co (富邦投顧). “I don’t think the recent price rebound will change this situation because rebounding prices still haven’t been able to stem the bleeding.”

Over the past two years, the nation’s two largest DRAM companies, Nanya Technology Corp (南亞科技) and Powerchip Semiconductor Corp (力晶半導體), have lost a combined NT$119.05 billion (US$3.63 billion) and are expected to stay in the red this year.

Smaller makers like ProMOS Technologies Inc (茂德科技) and Winbond Electronics Corp (華邦電子) have come to the realization that this is a battle for survival and they need to let go of their aversion to yielding turf this time, Lee said.

TMC formally began operations on July 31 after the Hsinchu-based company registered with the Ministry of Economic Affairs’ commerce department with an initial capital of NT$500,000. The company, chaired by semiconductor veteran John Hsuan (宣明智), has planned to ask for less than NT$10 billion in capital injection from the government.

When Hsuan unveiled his ­blueprint for TMC in April, he defined it as a chip designer focusing on technological development and licensing its patents to manufacturing partners in exchange for their production capacity.

By giving up the normal merger and acquisition approach, Hsuan hopes this unusual business model can achieve the government’s goal of securing advanced technologies for local DRAM players and divert overcapacity risk, which is the main reason behind the industry’s recent crunch.

Before TMC came into existence, some of TMC’s local competitors sneered at Hsuan’s idea of creating a DRAM designer.

In March, Powerchip chairman Frank Huang (黃崇仁) said TMC’s business model was unfit for the industry and could fail before it even began to exert influence.

“Capacity matters the most in DRAM industry. I cannot see any company without plants able to compete with existing players,” Huang said at the time.

Huang was not alone in casting doubt on TMC’s business model. Nanya spokesman Pai Pei-lin (白培霖) said in June that the DRAM industry is different from the chip designing industry.

“The DRAM industry needs ­economic-scale capacity to support its ability to make profits,” Pai said.

However, Liu Szu-liang (劉思良), an analyst with Yuanta Securities Investment Consulting (元大投顧), said the establishment of TMC is probably “the last hope to avert the fall of Taiwan’s DRAM sector.”

“It is a very difficult task,” he said.

Fubon Securities’ Lee believes there is still a chance for TMC to succeed. The company is also seeking partners in Taiwan’s DRAM supply chain to join its alliance with Elpida, which may strengthen the alliance’s power enough to compete with South Korean chip giant Samsung Electronics Co.

Nanya and its joint venture Inotera have not sought financial aid from the government since November, when the government first announced the possibility of rescuing DRAM makers. Nanya enjoys a relatively better financial structure and strong backing from its cash-rich parent company, Formosa Plastics Group (FPG, 台塑集團).

Things changed after the ministry announced a concrete NT$30 billion plan on July 22 to finance local DRAM firms and TMC is emerging as a potential competitor now that it has begun operations.

“We will submit our proposal jointly with Nanya by the Oct. 20 deadline ... We think we will meet all the government requirements,” said Charles Kau (高啟全), president of Inotera Memories Inc (華亞科技), a DRAM joint venture between Nanya and US memory chipmaker Micron Technology Inc.

Kau said the companies have not finalized the amount of investment from the government, but they will use part of the new capital to upgrade to 50-nanometer technology, the most advanced and cost-­effective memory technology available, he said.

“We hope the government will invest in us. Its investment will greatly reduce our burden,” Pai said.

Local smaller players now need to choose sides between TMC and the FPG camp composed of Nanya, Inotera and Micron.

ProMOS said last month that it planned to spin off an advanced 12-inch plant, paving the way for a new partnership with TMC, while Winbond said it would welcome potential collaboration with TMC.

Going it alone, Powerchip said last week it planned to resume almost full production from Aug. 20 to grab business on the heels of a recent recovery.

Now that the government is beginning to pour in resources, analysts agreed that the nation’s DRAM landscape is changing. It is worth observing whether TMC will become a major force after consolidating Taiwan’s DRAM sector to compete with FPG.
This story has been viewed 1499 times.