Sat, Jul 11, 2009 - Page 11 News List

IEA sees global oil demand bouncing back by next year


Global oil demand will rebound 1.7 percent next year, led by rising consumption in emerging economies as the developed world recovers from recession, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said yesterday.

But the IEA, adviser to 28 industrialized economies, still predicted demand would shrink this year and said the need for OPEC oil would be limited.

It forecast that world oil consumption next year would reach 85.2 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 83.8 million bpd this year.

The demand outlook for this year was “effectively unchanged” — down 2.9 percent, or 2.5 million bpd compared with last year, the agency said.

David Fyfe, head of the IEA’s oil industry and market division, said the extent of recovery in world oil demand would rest on the performance of the global economy and prices.

“It’s highly dependent on economic recovery materialising and the expectation [oil] prices will remain in a relatively moderate range,” he said.

He said a small upward revision in the estimate for oil demand “should not be interpreted as green shoots.”

Oil has been extremely volatile over the last year, peaking at an all-time record of more than US$147 per barrel a year ago, plunging to below US$40 in December and then recovering to more than US$70 in June.

By 11:10am GMT yesterday, benchmark US light crude oil was trading around US$59.60 per barrel, down US$0.81 on the day. Prices rose slightly following the IEA report, but then resumed their slide as the market focused on economic weakness.

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