The nation’s business cycle indicators flashed blue for the eighth straight time last month, indicating a sluggish economy even though the pace of downturn has weakened, the Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) said yesterday.
The composite leading index, used to portray the landscape one to two quarters ahead, gained 6.6 percentage points to 92.2 points but its annualized six-month rate remained in negative territory at minus 5.3 percent, the council said.
The data confirmed improvement in the state of the economy, which remains dismal, Hung Jui-bin (洪瑞彬), director-general of the council’s economic research department, told a media briefing.
Hung cited the stock price index as an example, saying the TAIEX, one of the seven leading components, stood at 5,724 points last month, a contraction of 35.5 percent from the same period last year.
Another leading pointer of M1B, which includes currency held by the public and passbook deposits rose 9.3 percent and turned green last month, the report said.
Analysts have taken the monetary measure as signs of further rallies in the local bourse in the short run.
The sub-indexes of export orders, semiconductor book-to-bill ratio, building permits and average monthly overtime industry and services also showed modest improvement from a month earlier, the report said.
The producer’s inventory reading marked the only leading indicator that failed to show positive movement last month. Meanwhile, the coincident index, an economic measure used to reflect the current economic state, picked up 3.7 percent to 87.5 points with its trend-adjusted reading up 3.6 percent to 85.6 points, the report said.
CEPD research division chief Wu Ming-huei (吳明蕙) attributed the upturn to positive movements in the gauges of industrial output, electric power consumption, manufacturing sales, machinery and electronic equipment imports as well as wholesale, retail and food services last month.
The latter indicator contracted 1.9 percent from a year earlier, which marked its strongest show since the third quarter of last year, Wu said.
The unemployment reading remained unchanged last month while custom-cleared exports deteriorated, Wu said.
Wu said the economy has stabilized as seen by both leading and concurrent indexes for the past three months, but said it was too early to talk about recovery.
Meanwhile, consumer confidence has continued to improve for a third straight month, buoyed by optimism about household finances and equity investment, although the overall sentiment is still pessimistic, a survey released yesterday showed.
The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) edged up to 52.11 points this month from 49.79 last month, the Research Center for Taiwan Economic Development at National Central University said in a statement.
Economists had expected the index to improve steadily this month because the latest economic data suggested the worst might be over and improving cross-strait ties are expected to help the economy.
A CCI figure of less than 100 points indicates that the public is pessimistic about the outlook for the next six months, while a score of between 100 and 200 points demonstrates optimism. The index examines public expectations of stock performance, household finances, durable goods, job opportunities, consumer prices and the economic outlook over the next six months.
This month’s survey, in which 2,298 people were polled between May 19 and May 22, showed consumers were more confident about their financial situations and stock investments.
The poll also suggested milder progress in consumers’ durable goods purchases and jobs outlook because many respondents were neutral about the impact of inflation on their daily lives, the statement said.
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