Macquarie Research Equities forecast that Taiwan would slip into a recession next year, with the economy contracting by 2 percent, down from its previous estimate of 4 percent growth and marking the most pessimistic view on the nation’s GDP prospects.
Last week, Deutsche Securities projected Taiwan’s GDP growth would drop to 1 percent next year from the 3.3 percent it forecast in June, while Standard Chartered Bank (Taiwan) revised its GDP growth forecast to 3.1 percent next year from its previous estimate of 4.8 percent.
Citigroup also lowered its forecast to 3.6 percent growth next year from the 5.1 percent it predicted in July in a report issued on Tuesday, citing an extended slowdown in the global economy.
Macquarie attributed its downward projection to the fallout from the US financial crisis, which it said would substantially undercut the nation’s performance and force local companies to lower inventories and investment, while consumers would become more cautious on spending.
Like their Asian peers, Taiwan’s policymakers have moved quickly to counteract a deteriorating global financial environment.
But the brokerage felt that the the market-friendly measures, such as interest rate cuts, increased banking liquidity and the blanket protection of depositors’ savings, were not enough to offset a sharp global economic slowdown next year.
Macquarie also revised down its forecast on Taiwan’s GDP growth to 2.8 percent this year from its previous estimate of 3.6 percent.
Stephen Garrett, a 27-year-old graduate student, always thought he would study in China, but first the country’s restrictive COVID-19 policies made it nearly impossible and now he has other concerns. The cost is one deterrent, but Garrett is more worried about restrictions on academic freedom and the personal risk of being stranded in China. He is not alone. Only about 700 American students are studying at Chinese universities, down from a peak of nearly 25,000 a decade ago, while there are nearly 300,000 Chinese students at US schools. Some young Americans are discouraged from investing their time in China by what they see
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