REBOUND
Analysts at UBS, Macquarie and CLSA wrote in reports last month that DRAM prices may not rebound until the second half of this year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc said in a March 23 note that prices are unlikely to recover this year because of oversupply.
South Korea's Hynix said last week it was considering cutting investments during the second half, possibly joining ProMOS, Qimonda and Nanya in scaling back production plans.
DRAM makers will probably reduce capital spending by about 40 percent this year, Goldman Sachs said.
Slowing expansion of capacity may be working. In the past week, fewer DRAM makers have sold chips at prices that "undermine" the market, Sakamoto said. Rising demand, stemming from the higher memory needs of Microsoft Corp's Windows Vista operating system, is also allowing chipmakers to clear excess inventory, he said.
Powerchip president Brian Shieh (謝再居) predicted in February that DRAM prices would rise this month. Prices of the 1-gigabit chip may climb to US$3.50 by as early as July, he said. The chip has fallen US$0.07 to US$1.81 since Shieh's comments, Dramexchange said.
Credit Suisse Group said on March 11 that prices of the 1-gibabit chip may more than double to US$4 this month, while Woori Investment & Securities Co said on March 21 that DRAM prices will probably rebound in the second quarter.
"Things are getting better," Sakamoto said. "DRAM prices have bottomed out and should be improving now."
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