Analysts advise caution in snapping up properties

Amid expectations that a post-election rally could lift the property market, analysts warned that sound economic fundamentals are essential to clearing uncertainties and attracting buyers at home and abroad in the coming year.

"If direct links [between Taiwan and China] are soon implemented, Taiwan could become a call center for multinationals that target the Chinese markets," Andrew Huang (黃丙喜), the director-general of FIABCI-Taiwan Real Estate Excellence Award, told a seminar yesterday. "Domestic and foreign buyers may then compete to buy local properties."

The local property market has turned upbeat after Saturday's presidential election, banking on a relaxation in cross-strait exchanges to aid a market recovery.

Chung Yin-tang (鍾尹堂), chairman of the market information committee at the Taichung Real Estate Development Association, said yesterday that some home buyers in central Taiwan had come back to close deals, fearing that home prices could soon skyrocket.

But more level-headed buyers continue to adopt a wait-and-see attitude until the local economy shows clear signs of a sustained boom.

Chung, who is also president of Taichung-based Hsin Yeh Development Co (新業建設), said that the local real estate market may see a moderate uptrend in May when president-elect Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) takes office.

However, property prices will only rise significantly late this year if the Ma administration makes some progress in cross-strait trade, Chung said.

Other market watchers at the seminar are not as optimistic.

Chuang Meng-han (莊孟翰), an industrial economics professor at Tamkang University, said that local property prices had hit historic highs in the past few years.

Given the nation's high home ownership rate of 87.83 percent and the rising supply of pre-sale properties, the local market is likely to suffer from an oversupply, he said.

Rising interest rates and lower mortgages further spell bad news for potential home buyers, he said.

"Our survey showed that 76 percent of respondents believe now is not a good time to invest in properties," Chuang said, adding that "the local market will soon shift from a seller's market into a buyer's market."

However, properties in good locations will see little impact from the market's slowdown, he said.

Kee Tai Real Estate (基泰建設) chairman Edward Chen (陳世銘) agreed, saying the market offers both challenges and opportunities.

Presenting the company's report, Chen said that the nation is facing its biggest inflationary pressure in 30 years, which could cut people's purchasing power by 20 percent in the next two years amid rising property prices.

Interest rates, tighter bank credit and a property oversupply could threaten the local market's recovery.

Chen said that commercial properties and projects that offer more value, such as luxury homes, are better investment bets.

If direct links between Taiwan and China are implemented, Edward Huang (黃炯輝), chairman of Ba Ba Real Estate (巴巴建設), said yesterday that he expected low-priced properties in Kaohsiung, which he called "diamonds in the rough," were likely to benefit the most.