Sat, Nov 24, 2007 - Page 12 News List

ANALYSIS: Business leaders cautious on TSE opening to China

WELCOME MOVE While most believed Chinese capital could give the local bourse a much-needed lift, they thought this was unlikely to happen any time soon

By Joyce Huang  /  STAFF REPORTER

Brushing off concerns that hostile Chinese capital could negatively impact on the local capital market, Hwang said: "It's only a question of gains or losses as money knows no borders and bears neither enmity nor affection."

Polaris Research Institute president Liang Kuo-yuan (梁國源) agreed that "the possible size of capital inflows from China will be enormous considering its excess liquidity."

Given China's US$1.4 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, "one tiny opening will be a huge boost [to the TAIEX] since Chinese capital has no way out, which is why the prices of its equities and properties are shooting up," Liang said.

Hong Kong's recent bull run, with the index scoring a 30 percent gain, is a good example of how Chinese capital helped boost the market. China in late August said it would start a pilot program to let some of its 1.3 billion citizens buy Hong Kong shares.

The TAIEX's annual turnover dropped to US$745 billion, as of September this year, from a high of more than US$1.3 trillion in 1997, although its market capitalization climbed to US$724 billion in September. The number of TSE-listed companies is also on the wane at 685 -- far smaller than Shanghai's 855 publicly traded companies, South Korea's 1,725 companies and Hong Kong's 1,210 companies.

Unlike Hong Kong's service-oriented economy, analysts said that the TSE, where world-leading Taiwanese high-tech companies are listed, is of great interest to Chinese stock investors.

"The Taiwanese market is more transparent with a healthy economy," said Cheng Cheng-mount (鄭貞茂), chief economist with Citibank NA (Taiwan), "with listed companies averaging a low price-to-earnings ratio," offering "potential profit gains."

It would certainly be attractive to Chinese investors once the TSE opens up to China, Cheng said.

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