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PRC three decades away from parity with US: Naisbitt

Despite a strong presence on the world map, China will still take at least three decades before catching up with the US economy, a renowned "futurism" expert said yesterday.

"China has such an extraordinary presence in the world today ? It is decentralizing and globalizing faster than any other country," said John Naisbitt, a US author and public speaker in the area of futuristics. "But the hype about China overtaking the US economy is a long way from reality."

still lagging

Naisbitt said China has just become a US$2 trillion economic body but still lags behind the US, whose economy is worth US$13 trillion.

Despite China's growth rate expanding by more than 10 percent rate every year, it will still take another "35 years to 40 years" before it is on par with the US, Naisbitt said in a two-hour speech in Taipei yesterday.

Best known as the author of international bestseller Megatrends, which was written in 1982 and later published in 57 countries, Naisbitt's speech attracted an audience of 3,000 to listen to his insights on trends and cross-strait relations.

He said China will be the strongest force to be reckoned with among the "BRIC nations" -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- in years to come.

consumer-oriented

China has moved from being the "workshop for the world," to an internal consumer-oriented economy, thanks to a rising pool of innovative designers and the adoption of new technologies, the 78-year old Naisbitt said.

Despite political differences, Taiwan and China are "integrating at an extraordinary speed" in terms of economies created by joint ventures and joint projects between the two, he said.

Taiwan's government should "get out of the way" to enable local entrepreneurs the opportunity to capitalize on their strength and expand their foothold overseas freely, he said.

Companies in Taiwan ought to continue to cooperate with their global partners rather than worrying about free trade pacts, as companies' roles are greater than governments' in bringing in business dollars, he said.
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