An economist with Citigroup Taiwan forecast yesterday that the nation's exports would advance by a higher-than-expected 7 percent this year and expects the local currency to appreciate against the US dollar by the end of the year.
Cheng Cheng-mount (
Exports of raw materials and semi-finished products led the drive in exports, advancing 33.5 percent year-on-year, followed by exports of chemical products, up 16.9 percent -- both taking advantage of growing demand due to China's infrastructure development, Cheng said.
Exports of electronics and related products, meanwhile, grew 4.7 percent.
In the first quarter, imports grew 3.1 percent, a relatively slow rate compared with the 9.9 percent posted in the last quarter last year, Cheng said.
During the same period, imports of capital equipment declined 2.1 percent, while imports of consumer goods grew 1 percent -- a significant increase compared with a decline of 8.3 percent in the last quarter of last year, Cheng said.
Cheng said that exports would still be the prime driver of economic growth this year, with exports advancing 7 percent, rather than the 6.4 percent previously expected.
He also said that imports would advance 7.8 percent this year, rather than the 8.2 percent previously forecast.
The New Taiwan dollar, for its part, would appreciate against the US dollar as long as interest rates in Taiwan keep rising, Cheng said. The Taiwanese currency could surge to NT$31.8 to the US dollar before the end of the year, he said.
The exchange rate on Friday was NT$33.1.
The central bank increased the benchmark interest rate for the 11th straight quarter by 0.125 percentage points on March 31, pushing the rediscount rate charged to commercial lenders to a five-year-high of 2.875 percent.
The rates on accommodations with collateral and accommodations without collateral also increased to 3.25 percent and 5.125 percent respectively.
As real market rates are still low, Cheng expected one or two more rate hikes this year.
The Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, meanwhile, announced yesterday that the high-tech industry had generated NT$6.99 trillion (US$209 billion) worth of products last year, an increase of 7.1 percent year-on-year.
Production constituted 60 percent of the overall output of the manufacturing sector last year, tallies showed.
Exports of high-tech and medium-high-tech products last year were worth US$159.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.8 percent, the statistics bureau said.
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