Wed, Nov 29, 2006 - Page 12 News List

CIER revises growth rate forecast

ROBUST EXPORTS The director of the research institution said that it had amended upwards predicted figures for the nation's GDP for this year and next year

By Jessie Ho  /  STAFF REPORTER

The Chung Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中經院) revised its forecast for Taiwan's economic growth rate this year on stronger exports, saying that the growth momentum will last to next year.

The institution predicted the nation's GDP will grow by 4.23 percent this year, up from its previous forecast of 4.11 percent last month, Chou Ji (周濟), director of CIER's economic forecast center, said at a seminar yesterday.

With robust exports in the third quarter, CIER further raised its GDP forecast for next year to 4.13 percent, up from 4.1 percent, Chou said.

For the whole year, private consumption will grow 1.51 percent and exports of goods and services will rise by 10.44 percent, CIER said. The Consumer price index is expected to rise by 0.72 percent and the unemployment rate for the year is forecast to be 3.92 percent, it said.

On the currency front, the New Taiwan dollar will rise to NT$31.92 against its US counterpart by the end of the year, Chou said. The local currency strengthened NT$0.029 to NT$32.675 yesterday.

If the economy is even stronger next year with exports increasing NT$20 billion (US$612.09 million) each quarter and domestic investment increasing NT$10 billion each quarter from this year, GDP growth next year would reach 4.63 percent, Chou said.

However, if exports decrease NT$20 billion per quarter, with domestic investment down by NT$10 billion each quarter, the GDP would slide to 3.64 percent, he said.

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