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Reported Chinese exports top those of US for first time

Five years ago, total US exports were worth about three times as much as exports from China. China's figure was growing -- the ratio had been about 5-1 five years before that -- but there was little doubt that it would be decades before Chinese exports equaled those of the US.

But now it has happened.

This week, the US reported it had exports of goods -- a figure that excludes exports of services -- of US$80.313 billion in July. China had already reported its July figure, US$80.337 billion.

It was the first month ever that China reported higher exports than the US.

To be sure, the figures are not seasonally adjusted, something that China does not do for its statistics. If they were, it is probable that the US would still be ahead, perhaps for a few more months.

Nonetheless, "there is no doubt about the trend," said Robert Barbera, the chief economist of ITG. He noted that China had already released its figure for last month, showing an increase to US$90.77 billion.

The large chart shown here gives monthly figures back to 1995, for both the US and China. The other charts show the share of China's exports going to its three largest trading partners: the US, Europe and Japan. Those data use 12-month moving averages to smooth the figures.

As can be easily seen, exports to all three countries have soared over the years. But the final chart shows the market share of the three trading partners for Chinese exports over time, and there have been changes. Japan was China's largest customer in the mid-1990s, buying a sixth of what China sold at the peak.

But the US moved into the No. 1 position in 1997 and held it until last year, when Europe -- measured as a continent -- began to take a larger share of Chinese exports than the US.

One way to look at exports over a long period of time is to measure the compound annual rate of increase. For the 10 years through July, Chinese exports rose at an annual rate of 19.5 percent, quadruple the 4.8 percent rate of growth for the US. (The figures are not adjusted for inflation, and are measured in US dollars.)

By contrast, Germany's exports rose at an annual rate of 7.0 percent, and it remains the largest exporter, with July sales of US$92.7 billion. Growth rates were 5.0 percent for France, 7.5 percent for Spain and 5.6 percent for Britain. Japan, notwithstanding the fact it still runs substantial trade surpluses, showed export growth at a rate of just 4.0 percent.

China's exports to the US rose at an annual rate of 22.3 percent, faster than its overall rate but slower than the 23.3 percent growth rate of exports to Europe. Exports to Japan rose at a slower rate, 11.4 percent.

For the US, exports to China have risen at an annual rate of 15.5 percent, the fastest growth in sales to any large country but not nearly enough to keep the trade deficit with China from becoming a political issue. But over the decade, exports to Japan have actually declined, at an annual rate of 1.6 percent.
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