Poll shows hiring will sag, investor confidence down

The nation's strong staffing demand since last year is projected to peter out in the fourth quarter, with service and transportation sectors likely to report the biggest declines in hiring activity, according to a poll released yesterday.

Of the 1,330 employers interviewed, 28 percent said they plan to increase their headcounts in the coming quarter, 14 percent expect a decrease in hiring and 50 percent plan to maintain their current payrolls, said Dennis Lee (李崇領), general manager of Manpower Services (Taiwan) Co, during a press briefing.

This resulted in a "net employment outlook" figure -- calculated by subtracting the number of employers planning to reduce staffing levels from the number planning to hire staff -- of 14 percent, compared to 23 percent in the third quarter and 16 percent in the same period last year, the report said.

Last in asia

This is not only the lowest outlook figure that Taiwan has recorded since the nation was included in the global survey in the second quarter of last year, but it also shows the nation at the last spot in the eight markets surveyed in the Asia-Pacific region, Lee said.

Lee said that Taiwan's poor performance could be attributed to international oil price spikes, pressure for interest rate hikes and in particular, ongoing political instability, all of which weaken employers's confidence in expanding business operations.

Noting that the Council for Economic Planning and Development's leading index figures released late last month showed signs of a slowdown for the second month in a row, Lee said that a weakening stock market and money supply have deepened people's anxieties about the economy.

Among the six major industries interviewed in the poll, only the finance, insurance and real estate sectors were projected to have hiring growth next quarter over the current quarter.

Lee attributed that exception to a gradual easing of consumer loan defaults and a pickup in the domestic housing market.

"Most banks have shifted their focus from the consumer banking business to corporate finance and wealth management. It is expected that a growing number of personal finance specialists will join the banking sector" within two years, Lee said.

Low confidence

Meanwhile, under a cloud of political instability at home and possible interest rate hikes abroad, investor confidence slumped to the lowest point in more than two years, according to a report released by JF Asset Management Taiwan yesterday.

The confidence index dropped to 88.6 points, from the 102.8 recorded in July, said the report, which interviewed 1,046 individual investors between Aug. 9 and Aug. 31.

An index figure of less than 100 points indicates that respondents are pessimistic, while a score over 100 indicates optimism.

The six sub-indices used to gauge confidence all show declines from the previous report. Among them, respondents continued to express optimism about the global economy and the likelihood of making profits in their investment portfolios in the next six months, the report said.

Pessimism was recorded in Taiwan's economic outlook, political environment and cross-strait relations.