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US consumer pessimism hits new high for the year
NY TIMES NEWS SERVICE
, NEW YORK
Thursday, Aug 31, 2006, Page 11
US are more pessimistic than they have been all year about the state of the economy, according to a new report that reflects a widespread view that a period of brisk growth is coming to an end.
The Conference Board said on Tuesday that in its monthly survey, US consumer confidence fell sharply this month to its lowest level since last November. The latest index reading of 99.6 was below the 107.0 reported last month, and represented the steepest single-month decline since the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Katrina a year ago.
"Ouch," wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief US economist with High Frequency Economics, in a research report on the index.
The pace of growth in the US economy has slowed by more than half since the first quarter, and many economists say they think the outlook will grow worse, not least because consumers sense the slowdown and are reining in their spending accordingly.
"Looking ahead, the glass remains half empty, as consumers are growing increasingly more pessimistic about the short-term outlook," Joshua Shapiro, chief US economist with MFR, a research company in New York, wrote on Tuesday in a research note.
Consumers been rattled this month by a surge in gasoline prices, a weakening job market and several signs that the housing market is skidding.
"Lead indicators suggest little prospect of a turnaround anytime soon," James Knightley, an economist with ING, wrote on Tuesday. "Confidence is likely to remain under downward pressure."
Last week, two major statistical reports detailed the malaise in housing. The National Association of Realtors said sales of previously owned homes fell last month to the lowest level in more than two years, while prices flattened and the supply of unsold houses on the market hit a record high.
Separately, the Commerce Department said that the median selling price of a new home -- US$230,000 last month -- was barely more than a year earlier, and that sales volume had fallen markedly.
The Commerce Department was to report a revised second-quarter gross domestic product figure yesterday.
Even if the number comes in at what analysts expect -- 3 percent, according to a survey by Bloomberg News -- that will be substantially less than the 5.6 percent growth during the first quarter. Initially, the government measured second-quarter growth at 2.5 percent.
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