Beijing offers a grandiose vision for China in 2050

By 2050 China will have eradicated poverty, established itself as a world power in science and lifted the average lifespan of its billion-plus citizens to 80 years, according to two blueprints for the future published last week.

Even by the standards of a country that has a passion for long- term economic plans, the targets -- which foresee the relocation of 500 million peasants to cities, huge investment in biotechnology and the addition of hundreds of millions more cars to the streets -- are ambitious, but give an indication of how the nation would like to see itself in the middle of the century.

They are likely to generate a mixed response in the outside world, where respect for China's success in raising living standards is mingled with fear that Beijing is emerging as a military rival to the US and an environmental menace to the planet.

The social projections are contained in the China Modernization Report 2006, drawn up by the country's leading research institute, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and released last Thursday.

GROWTH REQUIREMENT

If the country can maintain its current 9 percent rate of economic growth, it predicts the average income in China will rise to US$1,300 a month, about 10 times the current level.

In the past 25 years of expansion China has lifted an estimated 300 million people out of poverty, but there are still more than 80 million living below the government's poverty line of less than 668 yuan (US$83) a year.

By 2050, the institute predicts that nobody will have to subsist on such a minimum income and everyone will have access to social services.

It says the middle class will also enjoy an affluent lifestyle that only a small minority can currently afford. Half the population -- which will grow to about 1.5 billion -- will own their own car and be able to afford overseas travel.

The forecast is predicated on the transition of China from a predominantly agricultural society to a suburban, knowledge-based economy. This will entail moving 500 million rural dwellers into industrial cities, then 600 million city dwellers into high-tech suburban homes.

By 2050, 80 percent of urbanization will be completed, the report says.

DIFFICULT TARGETS

The authors admit the targets will be hard to achieve.

He Chuanqi, who headed the research team, told local reporters that China's economic situation is 100 years behind the US and there is only a 6 percent chance of his forecasts being realized.

He warned of problems emerging along with changing life styles and expectations, particularly because social change lags behind economic modernization.

A bigger threat is likely to be to the environment. China is already the world's second-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases.

If the predictions of a surge in car ownership and air travel are correct, it will far surpass the US as the major cause of global warming.

STATE COUNCIL REPORT

In a separate report, the State Council announced plans to boost investment in clean energy and nuclear power along with 14 other areas of scientific research. By 2020, it said, the country should be spending 2.5 percent of its gross domestic budget on research and development, double the current level.

By that time China would be one of the most advanced nations in the world in biotechnology and space exploration, fostering a "large number of world-class scientists and research teams," and making major breakthroughs in energy exploration, energy-saving technology and clean-energy technology.