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PC shipments to beat forecasts this year, IDC predicts

Personal-computer shipments will outpace forecasts this year on increased purchases of laptops and lower-priced desktop systems, researcher IDC said.

Shipments worldwide will rise 15.8 percent to 207.7 million units, higher than a September forecast for 14.1 percent growth, Framingham, Massachusetts-based IDC said in a statement yesterday.

IDC also raised its forecast for next year's PC shipments to 10.5 percent growth, up from an earlier prediction of 9 percent, as declining prices for notebook computers boost sales.

Growth will slow next year following record shipments in countries including China this year, IDC analyst Richard Shim said.

"We are being somewhat cautious for 2006," Shim said.

"We don't think this breakneck pace can continue, which is why we are being a little bit conservative," he said.

Next year will be the fourth year PC shipments rise more than 10 percent. Growth is being driven mostly by demand for portable PCs, especially in the US and emerging markets, Shim said. IDC predicts portable PCs will account for 50 percent of all computers sold in the US by 2008.

"In late 2008 to early 2009 we will see a crossover in the US, where shipments of portable PCs will exceed desktops," Shim said. IDC said it expects growth to slow in Japan and Western Europe next year because of a weaker economic outlook. Worldwide PC shipments will rise to 229.5 million from the estimated 207.7 million this year, IDC said.
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