ISuppli raises its chip sales estimate on strong recovery

Market researcher iSuppli Corp raised its outlook for global chip sales for this year due to a better-than-expected recovery from an almost one-year trough driven by overcapacity, the company said in its latest report.

The California-based researcher increased its forecast for global chip revenue for this year to US$237.3 billion, up 4.4 percent from US$227.3 billion last year, after it surveyed the top 100 leading semiconductor suppliers, according to Thursday's report.

Previously, iSuppli had predicted that chip revenue from the world's major chip suppliers, led by Intel Corp, would only grow 2.4 percent this year at an annual rate.

"Worldwide semiconductor growth exceeded expectations in the third quarter," iSuppli said in the report.

During the July-September period, global semiconductor companies posted a 4.5-percent year-on-year growth in sales, or a 9.3-percent increase from the second quarter, it said.

For the final quarter of this year, iSuppli estimates that global semiconductor revenue will climb by 5.3 percent quarter-on-quarter.

Contract chipmakers usually have stronger growth than the industry standard, a point the world's top player Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) has been stressing to its investors.

TSMC told investors in October that sales would increase by at least 10 percent to between NT$77 billion and NT$79 billion in the fourth quarter, from NT$69.3 billion in the third quarter.

TSMC chief executive Rick Tsai (蔡力行) said sustained demand from personal computers, communications and consumer electronics would be the major factor fueling growth.

Shares of TSMC and smaller rival United Microelectronics Corp (UMC, 聯電) advanced 2.19 percent and 2.13 percent, respectively, to NT$60.6 and NT$19.2 on the Taiwan Stock Exchange yesterday.

ISuppli did not provide its forecast for next year. Another researcher, International Data Corp (IDC), said on Wednesday that constant spending in the telecom and information technology markets would further drive the growth of the semiconductor market next year.

"After a modest boost this year from good PC and mobile phone demand, healthy economic growth will encourage corporations and consumers alike to sustain their spending patterns next year," Mario Morales, vice president of IDC's Semiconductor Research, said in Taipei.

Morales predicts that the worldwide semiconductor market will grow another 8 percent next year to US$240 billion after increasing 5 percent this year to US$224 billion.

For contract chipmakers, the utilization rates are recovering after bottoming out in the second quarter. Their capital spending will decline by 12 percent this year and will be slightly lower next year, he said.

Demand for chips that enable more storage, better power management, higher performance, and wireless connectivity will be the driving force behind growth in the consumer semiconductor market, which will double in size by 2009, he said.