The government yesterday revised its economic forecast upward for the year to 3.8 percent from 3.65 percent in August, with gross national product (GNP) per capita at NT$504,387 (US$15,659), after a new calculation system was used.
The new accounting version, 93SNA (System of National Accounts), was introduced by the UN in 1993 and has been adopted by the US, Japan and South Korea. Changes incurred include the categorization of computer software expenditure into fixed capital.
"By adopting the new accounting measure, our revision rate averages between 3.5 percent and 5 percent, much lower than South Korea's 14.7 percent and Australia's 22.5 percent due to different economic structures," said Hsu Chang-yao (許璋瑤), director-general of the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS), at a press briefing.
Even so, rising production in the manufacturing industry, robust exports and the speedy implementation of public construction plans in the second half of the year have also contributed to the GDP revision, according to DGBAS.
The statistics bureau estimated that GDP growth for the third quarter would stand at 4.38 percent and continue to climb to 5.28 percent in the fourth quarter, making economic growth in the July-through-December period 4.83 percent and 3.8 percent for the year.
However, academic institutions are less optimistic. The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER, 台經院) earlier this month forecast GDP growth at 3.51 percent, and the Chung-hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中經院) last month cut its growth forecast for this year for the second time to 3.53 percent due to the plummeting trade surplus in the second quarter.
Affected by industry migration overseas, this year's trade surplus is expected to slump to a new low at US$4.66 billion since it reached US$4.8 billion in 1983. But the figure should rebound to US$7.71 billion next year as imports and exports are expected to maintain stable growth, Hsu said.
In view of the surge in vegetable and fruit prices resulting from post-typhoon shortages and hikes in retail gasoline prices, the consumer price index (CPI) is estimated to increase by 2.23 percent over last year, which Hsu said largely came from irregular factors. DGBAS forecast in August that the CPI would rise 1.97 percent this year.
"Among the 2.23 percent CPI growth, vegetable and fruit prices account for 1.3 percent," he said.
In addition, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecast that the average crude oil price will drop from a record peak of US$60 per barrel to US$51 this year and US$52 next year, easing inflationary pressure.
The government predicted that CPI growth will rise slightly to 1.52 percent next year with the economy expanding by 4.08 percent.
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