Mon, Sep 05, 2005 - Page 11 News List

US$100 a barrel is not a pipe dream

GREAT UNCERTAINTY The prospect of sustained high oil prices is no longer unthinkable, especially if there is a terrorist attack, labor strike or hurricane, analysts said

AFP , SINGAPORE

A pressing worry now is how much damage has been inflicted on US refineries in the Gulf of Mexico region, which accounts for a quarter of the country's total oil output.

As of Saturday, more than 88 percent of daily Gulf crude production was shut down and nearly 79 percent of natural gas output was halted. That was an improvement on Thursday's 91 percent for crude and 83 for gas.

The Department of Energy said on Saturday that one refinery in Louisiana was restarting but eight others in the area remained shut down as a result of the hurricane.

Combined, the nine refineries' production capacity is 1.83 million barrels of oil a day -- about 10 percent of total US output.

"We have yet to find out how much damage Katrina has caused," White said.

"At the moment, we are at the mercy of the weather ... the worst is that the hurricane season is not over," she said.

Hurricane season

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June to November and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had warned last month that seven to nine more hurricanes could form this year, mainly threatening Caribbean islands and the US southern coast.

"The season is still another three months ... we still have a long way to go," Nunan said. "If we have another hurricane in the same area, it will be a total panic for the oil market."

While the prospect of oil prices touching the three-figure zone cannot be ruled out, analysts doubt a price at that level could be sustained as it would deal a psychological blow to consumers everywhere.

A three-digit crude oil price would be "enough to get everybody, politicians, economists and the average person on the street jumping up and down and cutting back on spending and driving," Nunan said.

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