Mon, Aug 29, 2005 - Page 11 News List

`Buy now, pay later' a very risky mantra

WALKING WOUNDED Some analysts fear that a rise in interest rates or competition from abroad may trigger a doomsday scenario where America can't pay its debts

AP , NEW YORK

Even without that announcement, Bergsten thinks it "would be crazy" for China to alienate the US.

The reason: China needs America as a major export market to fuel its own economic growth and to create jobs.

DOOMSDAY PREDICTIONS

There have been any number of doomsday predictions that didn't come true. But a number have: The Great Depression was the result of a panic in the market; in the late 1990s technology stocks collapsed.

A recent study by analysts at the Bear Stearns & Co Inc investment bank in New York says most bubbles share the same characteristics: A sense of prosperity leads to speculation which leads to price pressures and a rise in interest rates which then can cause the bubble to burst.

The analysts believe at least eight of the 10 characteristics of a bubble environment currently exist in America.

But they are not surprised few see it: "The idea that a financial disaster could occur at any moment is too far-fetched for individuals to imagine during times of such heightened exuberance."

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