Relationships change
The same content will be running across multiple operators, and it will become more difficult to stand out from the crowd.
For example, customers might stop saying "I want the network that has Premiership football highlights" and start asking "why doesn't this network have Premiership football highlights?"
It is a subtle difference, but one that changes the relationship between the operator and the brands it carries.
If content providers wrestle power back for themselves, through the Web or other on-phone applications, networks could be left in the lurch -- relegated to the role of an Internet service provider.
"Frankly, you can do some of this already," said Symbian's Garth. "On smartphones you can already run non-operator applications. And we see smartphones reaching the mass market by 2006 or 2007."
Thomas Husson, mobile specialist with Jupiter Research, is more upbeat.
"Strong brands like Disney or MTV will want to go straight to the user, but at the moment the mobile portal is the way into the data," he said.
He thinks operators have enough time to get stronger before the Internet effect takes over.
"Search engines are still some way off and the networks are using the content to build their own brand," he said. "For example, 3 is focusing more on sport, while Orange is maybe more interested in cinema."
Tailoring content
But the situation means networks are finding themselves in some strange places. The desire for mobile video is sending them towards broadcasters such as BSkyB, while tailored news services will compete against established Web sites such as the BBC.
Orange's music download sales, meanwhile, are being incorporated into the download music chart, placing them in an area more familiar to Apple's iTunes.
Are they network services or Internet portals? It is still unclear, but the lessons of the Web suggest they will struggle to be both. Perhaps operators must face up to the fact that control will eventually be handed to content creators.
It's not all bad news, though.
"There's little loyalty from consumers," Hewett said, "but even if the operator only gets a 20 percent share of content revenues, it still could be a substantial piece."
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