Yuan speculation could boost NT

The New Taiwan (NT) dollar is likely to go on rising slightly against the US dollar this week on renewed speculation that China is set to allow its yuan to freely float against the greenback in a narrow band, banking experts said yesterday.

But experts predicted that the local currency will only fluctuate marginally in a narrow range between NT$31.40 and NT$31.55 against the US unit due to weak momentum because of a slowed influx of foreign capital due to a sliding stock market.

The NT dollar ended at NT$31.503 against the US dollar last Friday on the Taipei foreign exchange, up by NT$0.196 compared to the week-earlier level.

A fresh market anticipation for an appreciation of the yuan will still prop up Asian currencies in a piecemeal fashion, which bankers said will not be as strong as in the first quarter of this year.

Their analysis came after Zhou Xiaochuan (周小川), China's central bank governor, said on Saturday that there were no serious political or technical obstacles to the reform of the rigid peg of the yuan to the US dollar.

But Zhou did not spell out any exact time on the move, saying only that a timetable for any changes was still under review.

Cheng Cheng-mount (鄭貞茂), Citibank Taiwan vice president, forecast that the local currency will not markedly pick up in value until the end of the year, which is traditionally the peak season for many businesses.

Although the NT's strong appreciation in the first half sparked concern in the export sector, Cheng said that the US economy and the effects of China's drive to stem its economic growth, rather than the currency exchange rate, will have greater leverage on Taiwan's economy in the second half.

Tai Hui (許長泰), an economist with the Standard Chartered Bank in Taipei, said that the US dollar's depreciation may come to an end after an adjustment period of more than two years in terms of value against other major currencies.

As the US dollar is gradually stabilizing, the central bank will also keep the currency stable to secure Taiwan's competitive edge, Hui said, adding that the exchange rate will thus not be a major element affecting the nation's economy in the second half.