Taiwan's export orders and industrial production last month had their biggest gains in at least six months as changes in the timing of the Lunar New Year meant there were more working days.
Orders -- indicative of shipments in one to three months -- rose 32 percent from a year earlier to US$18.4 billion after climbing 26 percent in December, the Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) said in a statement in Taipei. Industrial production rose 13 percent after falling 1 percent in December, it said.
Export growth will probably slow to 6.7 percent this year from about 21 percent last year, the government said on Thursday, citing a global economic slowdown and gains in the local currency. Companies including AU Optronics Corp (友達光電) and Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Inc (日月光) are reining in expansion to reflect the deteriorating outlook for sales.
"We may see orders and output achieve single-digit growth this year in light of weakening global demand and the stronger Taiwan dollar," said Tiger Cheng, an economist at Taipei-based Polaris Securities Co (
The economy expanded 3.3 percent in the fourth quarter, the slowest pace in more than a year, and the government on Thursday cut its economic growth forecast for this year to 4.2 percent from 4.6 percent.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2 percent last month, the statistics bureau reported on Thursday. M2, the broadest measure of the nation's money supply, rose 6.2 percent, the smallest gain in a year, the central bank said.
"The rate of growth in Taiwan's economy will slow this year," said Joanne Yang, an economist with Yuanta Core Pacific Securities in Taipei (
"The main reason is a slowdown in growth for the global economy," she said.
Growth in the US is expected to slow to 3.6 percent this year from 4.4 percent in 2003, according to the median forecast in a survey released by the National Association for Business Economics on Feb. 23. Japan's economy slipped into recession last year for the fourth time in 13 years.
Taiwan's export orders from the US, the nation's biggest export market after China, rose 34 percent to US$5 billion last month after gaining 37 percent the previous month, Thursday's statement said. Orders from Japan, the world's second-largest economy, surged 45 percent to US$2 billion, compared with a 49 percent gain in December.
"January and February figures are distorted by the new-year effect," Cheng said.
Orders from Hong Kong rose 52 percent last month to US$4.5 billion, compared with a 20 percent gain in December, the statement showed. Most Taiwanese goods bound for China are shipped via Hong Kong because of transport restrictions between Taiwan and China.
Sales to Europe increased 31 percent to US$3 billion after climbing 20 percent in December, the MOEA report showed.
Overseas orders for Taiwan's electronic goods rose 27 percent to US$3.9 billion last month after gaining 23 percent the previous month. Those for information technology and telecommunications equipment increased 7.5 percent to US$3 billion after rising 19 percent in December.
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