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Retailers face limited sales growth

"As long as there are no unexpected events like the SARS epidemic in 2003 ... the retail sector will not experience big changes this year."

Neo Lee, a researcher with SinoPac Securities

After enjoying a year of marked revenue growth and challenges from several newcomers, retailers will have to guard against the possible fallout of rising consumer prices as their performance this year is expected to only maintain the status quo.

"There will be no substantial increase in retailers' sales from last year," said Neo Lee (李承瀚), a researcher with SinoPac Securities Corp (建華證券).

"As long as there are no unexpected events like the SARS epidemic in 2003 or a sudden economic slump, the retail sector will not experience big changes this year," he said.

Hypermarkets, convenience-store chains, department stores and other retailers together created NT$570 billion (US$18 billion) in sales for the first 10 months of last year, or a 7.64 percent increase from the same period in 2003, according to figures released by the Ministry of Economic Affairs last month.

But Lee predicts that rising consumer prices -- not a looming economic slowdown -- will eat into retailers' profits this year.

The Consumer Price Index rose 1.62 percent for the whole of last year, the highest level since 1998, when it was 1.69 percent, the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics reported on Wednesday. The agency predicted 1.88 percent growth in the index this year.

"Price increases will create a `crowd-out' effect in household consumption as consumers will be forced to restrain unnecessary spending," Lee said.

While a combination of new mega-stores and easier access to credit had raised hopes of higher revenues for large discounters last year, the result was rather disappointing.

hypermarkets

For the first 10 months, hypermarkets posted NT$117 billion in total sales, down 1.17 percent year-on-year, according to the ministry's statistics.

"Retailers weren't adding stores at the pace they used to," said Jennifer Wang (王琇姿), associate director at ACNielsen Taiwan's retail measurement services, as she explained the cause of contracting revenues.

"On the other hand, the slowdown in adding stores pinpoints a hidden concern over the government's land-zone regulations," Wang said.

Echoing Wang's view, Kaufmann Wei (魏正元), president of RT-Mart (大潤發) hypermarket, said the development of large discounters in Taiwan is becoming difficult because traditional wet markets remain exempt from government regulations.

Looking ahead, pressure on discounters from higher materials prices is imminent, which will erode gross margins as competition heats up.

"Developing more own-brand products and expediting mass procurement should be the way out, and to secure the biggest profits," Wei said.

Jeff Lai (賴建都), professor of advertising at National Chengchi University, held the same view, saying that consumer demand can be created, especially when retailers are seeking to branch out in the market.

For convenience-store chains, the compeitition is even more cutthroat.

convenience stores

Industry veterans estimate that there will be more than 8,000 convenience stores serving the country this year, meaning each outlet will serve fewer than 3,000 customers, mirroring the situation in Japan.

Indeed, the net increase in convenience stores saw the biggest jump in 1999, when 1,002 new stores were opened, resulting in an annual growth rate of 25.38 percent.

But growth slowed to 9.06 percent in 2003, when 554 new outlets were opened for business, the Fair Trade Commission reported in November.

With a shrinking customer base, convenience stores just need to do more to keep customers, said Yeh Jung-ting (葉榮廷), vice president of Taiwan FamilyMart Co (全家便利).

Taiwan FamilyMart has expanded its product mix, including the introduction of pre-paid Lunar New Year dishes to serve those who don't want to cook the dishes themselves.

"Convenience stores must endeavor to change consumer behavior because creating brand-new demand is very difficult," he said. "Nevertheless, we want consumers to come back to our stores, again and again."

Even so, Taiwan FamilyMart and other convenience chains are slowing the rate at which they are opening new shops, as a result of rising rental costs.

"Now, the priority for us is to improve overall quality and shut down poorly performing stores," Yeh said.

shopping malls

The situation was less bleak for large-scale shopping complex investments last year.

In Taipei City alone, Miramar Entertainment Park (美麗華百樂園) opened for business in the Dazhi district in November, while Shin Kong Mitsukoshi Department Store (新光三越) unveiled its new Tienmu branch last month.

In southern Taiwan, Uni-President Group (統一集團) held a topping-off ceremony for its Dream Mall (夢時代購物中心) in Kaohsiung last month, vowing to become the nation's largest shopping mall.

"New shopping districts will soon take shape in these areas, following the model used in Taipei's Xinyi district, which boasts the Taipei 101 Mall, Shin Kong Mitsukoshi's three branches and the New York New York mall," ACNielsen's Wang said. "A cluster of competitors in the same area can attract a bigger crowd."

But SinoPac Securities' Lee said retailers need to find a new success formula -- tapping into the Chinese market or merging with rivals -- or risk losing investors' confidence.

"Opening department stores or shopping malls requires abundant investments and those investments will take several years to break even," Lee said.
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