Sun, Oct 31, 2004 - Page 11 News List

US economy picking up speed

UNCERTAINTY Despite the good news, economists remain concerned that high oil prices, lackluster wage and job growth and too-weak exports could inhibit expansion

NY TIMES NEWS SERVICE , NEW YORK

The US economy picked up speed in the third quarter of the year to expand at a 3.7 percent annual rate, the government reported on Friday.

The growth in the US' output of goods and services handily exceeded the 3.3 percent rate registered in the second quarter -- when the economy was held back by a surge in energy prices that took a bite out of US household budgets and dented consumer spending.

Yet despite the third quarter's bounce, economists remained concerned that challenges from high oil prices and lackluster wage and job growth, too-weak exports and the end of corporate tax breaks could inhibit economic expansion in coming quarters.

"It's pretty good news on the economy," said Dick Rippe, chief economist of Prudential Equity Group. "But the uncertainty that hangs over the whole thing is oil. What oil prices do going forward is critical."

Coming out just days before the election, the report was seized on by supporters of both presidential candidates as providing support for their campaign positions.

The data released by the Commerce Department underscored the importance of consumers in keeping the economy moving.

Business investment remained robust in the quarter. Yet the accumulation of inventories slowed -- a sign of business concern over future demand. Trade also exerted a drag on growth as exports grew substantially less than imports.

Nearly nine-tenths of the economic growth recorded during the third quarter was accounted for by personal consumption expenditures. Purchases of durable goods sped ahead by 16.8 percent, the fastest pace in over a year. Car sales alone accounted for more than a quarter of economic growth during the period.

"The American consumer is the spender of last resort for the world economy," said Richard Hoey, chief economist and chief investment strategist of the Dreyfus Corp. "This has the side effect of a high trade deficit and a low savings rate."

Indeed, consumers also revealed a vulnerability that could hinder growth in coming months -- because even as their spending accelerated, their income growth slowed, leading to a fall in the personal savings rate to 0.4 percent of disposable personal income, its lowest ever.

The weak income picture was underscored by new figures from the Labor Department that showed wages of regular workers in the third quarter grew by merely 2.4 percent over the year before, the lowest rate on record, below the inflation rate of 2.7 percent during the period.

The third quarter economic growth was the last item of substantial economic news before the election Tuesday, and both sides on the political divide jumped on the release.

"GDP continues to grow above the average of the 1970s, '80s and '90s while the unemployment rate remains below the average for those decades," Treasury Secretary John Snow said in a news release.

Yet the campaign of Senator John Kerry pointed out that business investment declined by 0.5 percent during President George W. Bush's administration -- the first time this has happened since the 1930s, while exports of goods also declined.

"Most middle-class families will find it difficult to swallow the Bush administration's spin that this is the best economy of our lifetime," said a statement by Gene Sperling, an economic adviser to Kerry.

This story has been viewed 2226 times.
TOP top