Worldwide semiconductor sales may peak this year and fall for the first time in five years in 2006 amid concerns of an oversupply in computer chips, Gartner Inc analyst Philip Koh said.
Gartner raised its forecast for global semiconductor sales to US$226 billion this year, Koh said, from US$221 billion earlier. The market researcher is also expecting sales of US$247 billion next year and a 2.4 percent decline to US$241 billion in 2006.
"We are going to see a peak in 2004 from the semiconductor perspective," Koh said at a technology conference in Singapore. "With the oversupply situation coming in 2005, there's a possibility of a decline in the average selling prices of the devices."
High-tech bellwether Intel Corp last week trimmed its third-quarter revenue projection to a range between US$8.3 billion and US$8.6 billion from previous estimates of between US$8.6 billion and US$9.2 billion because of lower-than-expected demand, especially in consumer electronics.
"The US chip giant's downward adjustment of its financial forecast further deepens the worry that the semiconductor sector could fall into a recession in 2005 after hitting its peak in the current quarter," Wu Pei-wei (吳佩偉), a portfolio manager at ABN-AMRO Asset Management in Taipei, told the Taipei Times on Friday.
United Microelectronics Corp (UMC, 聯電), the world's second-largest made-to-order chipmaker, yesterday said revenue rose 64.34 percent to a monthly record of NT$11.51 billion (US$339 million) in August from NT$7.01 billion in the same month last year.
For the first eight months of the year, UMC's revenues totaled NT$77.22 billion (US$2.27 billion), up 44 percent from the same period a year ago, the company said in a statement.
UMC and its bigger rival, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC,
On the local bourse, UMC shares rose 1.4 percent to NT$22 while TSMC added 0.9 percent to NT$44.4.
The Asia-Pacific region, which accounts for about 45 percent of global semiconductor sales, is expected to increase to 50 percent by 2008, Koh said, adding that within the Asia-Pacific region, growth is going to be driven by the China market.
Gartner estimates that China may account for about 20 percent of total worldwide semiconductor sales this year, increasing to about 25 percent by 2008.
Chinese chipmakers such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (中芯國際集成電路) are expanding capacity even as Intel forecasts declining demand.
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