Finance ministry expects oil to cap export growth

The nation's export growth may slow in coming months in view of high oil prices, a Ministry of Finance official said yesterday.

The possibility of interest rate hikes in the US and the impact of China's economic cooling measures may also affect the nation's export performance during the second half of the year, Hsu Kuo-chung (許國忠), director of the ministry's statistics department, told a press briefing yesterday.

Hsu's comments came after the ministry reported that the nation's August export figures had increased 20 percent from a year earlier to US$14.75 billion, after climbing 26 percent from a year earlier to US$14.66 billion in July.

As imports rose 33.7 percent to US$13.9 billion last month from a year ago, the nation saw a trade surplus of US$850 million for August, Hsu said, citing the ministry's latest statistics.

Hsu said that demand for Taiwanese-made goods in Hong Kong, China, Southeast Asia and South Korea remained strong last month, but the soaring oil prices capped the growth pace in exports.

The average price of Taiwan's oil imports last month was a record high of US$36.35 a barrel, surpassing July's US$35.03 a barrel and sharply higher than US$27.44 a year ago, he said.

"Exports showed quite solid growth as demand from China, Japan and the US was strong," said Daniel Chen, chief economist at SinoPac Holdings Co (建華證券). "But export growth is peaking. Slower growth is expected in the fourth quarter."

Hsu forecast that exports would total US$44.9 billion this quarter and US$42.5 billion in the final three months of the year.

Imports will probably rise 33 percent to US$42 billion this quarter and 13 percent to US$46 billion in the following three months, he said.

For the first eight months of the year, exports rose 24.9 percent to US$113.35 billion, while imports were up 35 percent to US$107.72 billion, giving a trade surplus of US$5.63 billion, the ministry's figures show.

Taiwan's exports to China and Hong Kong rose 22 percent to US$5.44 billion last month. China and Hong Kong together accounted for 36.9 percent of Taiwan's exports for the month. Exports to the US, the nation's second-biggest market with a share of 17 percent, rose 12.8 percent to US$2.51 billion, the ministry said.