Analysts say chip orders about to rise

Revenue the world's semiconductor sector is expected to grow by nearly a third annually due to improving demand, a market researcher said yesterday in its latest forecast.

Growth revenue at semiconductor companies is expected to increase 27.4 percent to US$226 billion this year, according to a report released by Gartner Inc yesterday. Revenue totalled US$117 billion last year, with a year-on-year increase of 14 percent.

The latest forecast is an upward revision from the 25 percent expansion projected by the Stamford, Connecticut-based research house in May.

"Despite the improving market conditions that semiconductor vendors have enjoyed over the past several quarters and the expectation that revenue growth this year will be close to 30 percent, this industry upcycle is notable in that few in the industry have felt able to acknowledge it as a boom," said Richard Gordon, research vice president with Gartner.

While market will experience strong growth this year, there are concerns among vendors about the industry outlook, the research house said.

Concerns an excessive inventory at semiconductor companies have triggered investment banks to revise down their projections for the sector, as Merrill Lynch did last month.

Dan Heyler, Merrill's semiconductor researcher, reiterated on Friday that his "underweight" ranking for global semiconductor companies would remain unchanged, as supply growth has started to outpace demand.

South Korean chipmakers Hynix Semiconductor Inc, Samsung Electronics Co and Hong Kong-listed Solomon Systech Inc (晶門科技), a flat panel display IC maker, are Merrill Lynch's favorites, while Taiwan-based chipmakers such as MediaTek Inc (聯發科技), VIA Technologies Inc (威盛電子) and Winbond Electronics Corp (華邦電子) are among those least preferred, according to Merrill Lynch.

But, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), the world's biggest contract chipmaker, may outperform rival United Microelectronics Corp (UMC, 聯電) and others this year, the US-based investment bank said.

TSMC sales hit a record high for the fourth month in a row in July to around NT$23.15 billion, beating most analysts' forecast of a decline from the previous month.

In the first seven months, TSMC accumulated NT$145.53 billion in sales, up 36.1 percent from a year earlier.