Wood Mackenzie is sceptical. It points out that between them major western countries need to find reserves equivalent to Angola's every 15 months just to stand still.
It shows that new areas such as Alaska face difficulties because of extreme environmental sensitivities and regulatory concerns. Other areas, such as Nigeria, and newer ones, such as Benin, are uncertain.
Companies must take greater risks -- such as exploration in ever deeper water, and expensive investment in extraction from shale beds.
And it points out that reserve replacement has often been achieved by shuffling finds into the proved category rather than actually finding more oil (which underlines the importance of Shell's declassification of reserves).
Eventually, it will be down to consumers to decide when the price of oil and gas makes it no longer worthwhile investing in things that are powered by them. It is likely, concedes Takin, to be well before our notional 2.3 trillion barrels are used up ... whenever that may be.
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