Persian Gulf oil money keeps democracy at bay

The wealth of the Persian Gulf monarchies, which skyrocketed with the 1970s oil crises, is now the biggest obstacle to their reform since it remains largely in the hands of conservative ruling families, analysts say.

"The authorities in the Gulf countries have a stranglehold on the economic potential of their countries, which is the main obstacle to real reforms," said Ahmed al-Diyan of the pro-reform Kuwaiti group the Democratic Forum.

"In our countries, the state is the biggest backer [of the economy] and the biggest employer, and controls the direction of the economy," Diyan said at a forum on Gulf reforms here which has gathered academics, thinkers and former officials.

In the region, he said, "the concept of power remains incompatible with the foundations of a modern state."

And despite small efforts at change over the past several years, "the authorities have not changed their way of thinking," while "the social forces which could undertake a reform project are weak," he added.

Calls for the Gulf states to reform have multiplied since the US launched a campaign to promote democracy in the region in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, as well as since the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq.

The six Gulf states -- Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates -- have enormous oil and gas reserves, and a relatively small combined population of 32 million, which includes large expatriate communities.

But their political systems, with the exceptions of Kuwait and Bahrain, have remained stagnant. Kuwait has the region's oldest elected parliament while Bahrain restored its long dissolved legislature in 2002.

To introduce reforms in the countries, one would need "a real democracy, real popular participation in power," the former Bahraini education minister, Ali Fakhru, said at the two-day forum which ended Friday.

But "as long as the wealth does not belong to the people for the purpose of creating lasting development ... it will be difficult to talk of real reforms," he said.

He called for the creation of popular reform movements ready to campaign peacefully over the long haul for democracy, which he added could only come from internal pressure.

"Reform imposed from the outside is unacceptable," he said.

Emirati political science professor Ibtissam al-Kotbi added a warning that economic problems, especially rampant unemployment, risked causing the Gulf countries serious problems which could only be overcome with reforms.

"Political legitimacy in the Gulf countries is perpetuated thanks to money ... but it is not as easy to buy [people's] allegiance as it used to be," he said.

"As long as they are satisfied, the people are calm. But if they go hungry, they will start to rebel and resort to violence," he said.