Mon, Dec 08, 2003 - Page 11 News List

Japanese developers turn optimistic on occupancy

REAL ESTATE Despite a property glut, many industry executives feel new mixed-use developments will help boost a sector that is emerging from a 14-year slump

REUTERS , TOKYO

Some made money and left, but many remain, borrowing at rock bottom interest rates to buy buildings yielding up to 8 percent.

And they are being joined by Japanese buyers: insurance and pension funds and the new Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Seven REITs, funds that derive income and pay dividends from a pre-defined set of properties, have been created since 2000 and several more are set to follow in the coming year.

Funds and developers say they plan to turn older buildings into condominiums and hotels and make them more earthquake resistant, a renovation market that construction firm Taisei Corp thinks is worth ?200 billion. Some say half of Tokyo's buildings would not survive a massive earthquake.

Emboldened by this year's experience, developers are planning even more new office buildings. There is already talk of a "2007 problem" and a sharp drop in demand for office space in 2010 when the post-war baby-boom generation hits retirement age.

"We will have the same problem in 2007," said Katsunori Fujiyama, a senior fellow at Mitsui Fudosan, which is building two office buildings for four years time, each of 300,000m2.

"But there are many companies that want to relocate downtown to a more visible location which is convenient," Fujiyama said.

The property sector is pinning its hopes on the Japanese economy sustaining an upturn after two false starts in the last decade.

It will likely depend on recapitalizing banks quickly and reviving consumer spending and investment, now stifled by a deflationary spiral.

But the shops at Roppongi Hills still have a hush about them.

"So far it hasn't passed the taxi driver test," said Theodore Bestore, a Havard University anthropologist who has studied Japanese communities. "They say to me `your Japanese is very good, but where's Roppongi Hills?'"

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