Russia analysts say that Khodorkovsky's arrest, on fraud and tax evasion charges, was precipitated by his financing of political opponents of Putin. That would violate an agreement the president made with the oligarchs when he came to power: They could keep their wealth, earned from buying oil assets at pennies on the dollar, as long as they refrained from politics. Russia has scheduled elections for the lower house of the legislature, the Duma, for December, and Putin is running for re-election in March.
Many authorities on Russian politics have said that the Putin-Khodorkovsky dispute reflects the president's attitude toward the oilman, not the oil business. "There aren't any more Khodorkovskys out there," said Jerome Booth, research director at Ashmore Investment Management, a London firm that is a longtime investor in Russia. "He's the only guy daft enough to take Putin on. I think the whole thing has been overreacted to."
The fact that the dispute has intensified still creates unease.
"Clearly, there are worries that we're starting to see a side of Russia we thought we had gotten rid of," Wright said. "Progress is going to be slow. It's going to take time to change historic attitudes there."
Any leader who wants to get a firm grip on political and economic life in Russia is bound to devote attention to the energy sector, and Choyleva said that even before the flare-up between Russia's president and its richest man, there was a tug of war between the government and oil businesses. The two camps have fought to a standoff because each controls an element of the industry on which the other depends. Production is in private hands, but the pipeline network, the cheapest mode of transport for oil, is under government ownership, through an entity called Transneft.
"Having this bipolar structure does not necessarily promote cooperation," Choyleva said. "Cooperation that has existed has been buttressed by high oil prices. If prices were to fall substantially, there could be confrontation between oil firms and the government. The government could go after more revenue. It could raise fees for transporting oil or increase taxes. Whatever form it takes is not so important. Things won't run as smoothly, and it won't be beneficial for the economy."
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