Sun, Sep 07, 2003 - Page 11 News List

US jobless figures are a nasty surprise

POLITICAL FODDER Economic analysts had predicted that the US economy would gain 20,000 jobs last month, but American employers shed 93,000 more employees

NY TIMES NEWS SERVICE , NEW YORK

Employers continued to shed workers in August, the US government reported Friday, while at the same time, the US' unemployment rate ticked slightly lower.

In its monthly employment survey, which it said was probably not affected by the Aug. 14 blackout in the Northeast, the US Department of Labor said that non-farm payroll employment fell by 93,000 last month. It was the seventh consecutive monthly decline in employment, and the biggest since March.

Meanwhile, the nation's unemployment rate dipped to 6.1 percent, from 6.2 percent in July.

The job loss numbers were a surprise and a disappointment to many private economists, who had been expecting that payroll employment would be unchanged or perhaps slightly higher. Compounding the concern is the fact that other indicators suggest the economy is growing vigorously in the current quarter.

Reaction in the financial markets was muted. In early trading, stock prices, which have been rising vigorously for much of this holiday-shortened week, were mixed. Bond prices moved up a bit, and interest rates declined slightly.

The fact that rising demand is not prodding employers to add workers suggests that the economy may need to expand at a much more rapid rate than previously thought in order to generate job growth.

"This is a major disappoint-ment," William Sullivan, a senior economist at Morgan Stanley, told viewers on CNBC shortly after the numbers were released. "It confirms my thesis that there are structural shifts in the labor market that could impede new hiring."

Among other things, Sullivan cited surging productivity growth, big investments by businesses abroad and the spread of labor-saving technology as part of the shift that is allowing the economy to produce more with fewer workers.

"If productivity can grow at 3.5 percent to 4 percent indefinitely, and it is growing faster than that now, it will be very difficult to generate job growth," said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International. "It may be a very long time before we begin reaping the rewards of an uptick in final demand in terms of rising payrolls."

If Resler's observation is borne out, it could present a major political problem for US President George W. Bush, who faces re-election 15 months from now.

"The Democrats have an issue," said Joe Liro, an economist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, an economic consulting firm based in Princeton, New Jersey.

The White House played down the loss of jobs Friday.

"What usually happens after a recession is jobs are one of the last things to catch up," said White House spokesman Scott McClellan.

"There are a number of positive signs in our economy," he said. "But there is more we need to do to get the economy growing even faster. The president is not satisfied."

Earlier this week, Bush announced that a post at the US Department of Commerce was being changed to focus on revitalizing the manufacturing sector.

Manufacturing payrolls were among those that fell again last month, according to the employment data. Factory owners, who have been cutting jobs for more than three years, shed an additional 44,000 positions last month.

Job cuts were also seen in the service and government sectors. Service sector employment fell by 67,000, while government shed 26,000 workers.

Those declines were not offset by gains in health care, which added 25,000 workers, and in construction employment, which rose by 19,000.

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