Business leaders yesterday welcomed President Chen Shui-bian's (
"I'd be happy to see the ban on cross-strait traffic lifted, if the project can really be carried out," said Tsai Horng-ming (
While the policymakers should also map out a set of meticulous supporting measures for the links, "the opening-up policy is a must in view of the rapidly growing business activities across the strait," Tsai said.
Currently, there are approximately 500,000 Taiwanese business-people in China, according to the Mainland Affairs Council. For the first half of the year, government-approved China-bound investments by Taiwanese businesses totaled US$5.12 billion, surging 233.27 percent from a year ago.
George Lin (
One concern Tsai raised is how to keep Taiwanese products competitive after cheaper Chinese imports flood in.
"I think a considerable portion of Taiwanese consumer goods, textile and electric appliances will be replaced by Chinese ones if no restrictions are imposed on cross-strait shipments," Tsai said.
For the first five months of the year, Chinese goods exported to Taiwan totaled US$4 billion, making it the the third-largest country-of-origin for goods imported to Taiwan, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs.
Foreign investors in Taiwan are also glad to see a breakthrough in the cross-strait relationship and hope foreign shippers can participate in the cross-strait transport business.
"We've suggested opening direct links -- especially in the cargo sector -- for years," said Guy Wittich, CEO of the European Chamber of Commerce in Taipei (ECCT). "China is now the biggest international cargo market. Taiwan should be part of it, and can largely benefit from it after free-trade ports are established."
Wittich said foreign companies would also like to operate cross-strait transport businesses, but the government has not given a concrete response regarding the issue yet. Nonetheless, China's airline authorities have said they don't want to open the air-cargo business to overseas carriers.
While opinion polls have indicated public dissatisfaction with Chen's economic policies, "the longer-term economic benefits from a more efficient cross-strait transport scheme makes direct links not a question of if, but when," said Christopher Smith, an aviation industry analyst at Primasia Securities Co in Taipei.
The government said in the Economic Development Advisory Conference (
However, recent cross-strait developments have paved the way for a major breakthrough in transport links, Smith said in a report issued last month.
On Oct. 17, former Chinese vice premier Qian Qi-chen (錢其琛) was quoted as saying that Taiwan need not accept the "one China" principle as a pre-condition for direct links, while the Mainland Affairs Council said last November that direct transport links are inevitable.
Earlier this year, Taiwan allowed chartered flights to China for the Lunar New Year celebration. And, in May, the government said it was considering permitting direct charter cargo flights to China to alleviate the fallout from SARS.
Moreover, there are economic imperatives for direct links between the two sides, as savings in transportation costs will result in an increase of Taiwan's GDP by 2 percent to 3 percent after the implementation of direct links for three to five years, Smith said in the report.
Against this backdrop, "we believe that it is inevitable that Taiwan's policymakers will be forced to look at direct links not as a panacea for the economy, but at the very least as a much-needed shot in the arm," the analyst said.
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